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By the Numbers

Historically tight vacancies, steeply rising rents likely to induce sticker shock for U.S. warehouse users

AJOT | December 06, 2021 | Logistics | By The Numbers

Average U.S. market rents 25% higher than rents at lease expiration; Northeast and California see increases of more than 60%

U.S. airlines’ net profit in 3rd quarter 2021 nearly triples 2nd quarter
U.S. airlines’ net profit in 3rd quarter 2021 nearly triples 2nd quarter

AJOT | December 06, 2021 | Air Cargo News | Airlines | By The Numbers

Second consecutive quarterly profit during COVID-19 pandemic

Oil rises on Omicron’s mild symptoms, Saudi Aramco’s January pricing - Rystad Energy

AJOT | December 06, 2021 | Energy News | Conventional | By The Numbers

Oil prices are increasing today as traders recalibrate their assumptions on Omicron’s market effect, while Saudi Aramco also increased selling prices for January.

Brazil was the only South American country to increase crude oil production in 2020
Brazil was the only South American country to increase crude oil production in 2020

AJOT | December 06, 2021 | Energy News | Conventional | By The Numbers

Brazil was the only oil-producing country in South America to report an increase in crude oil and condensate production in 2020 compared with 2019, according to our Country Analysis Brief: Brazil, which we updated this summer.

FTR reports preliminary North American Class 8 net orders drop in November to 9,500

AJOT | December 06, 2021 | Intermodal News | Road | By The Numbers

FTR reports preliminary North American Class 8 net orders dropped in November to 9,500 units, down 41% from October and down 82% y/y. Orders were the lowest for the month of November since 1995.

WorldACD: Trends for the past 5 weeks (wk 47)
WorldACD: Trends for the past 5 weeks (wk 47)

AJOT | December 03, 2021 | Air Cargo News | Freighters | By The Numbers

WorldACD's latest views on air cargo market developments, covering each of the last 5 weeks up till Sunday 28 November.

Tanker Market Outlook: Why not yet and why now
Tanker Market Outlook: Why not yet and why now

AJOT | December 03, 2021 | Maritime News | Bulk | By The Numbers

We are now in December and the tanker market remains surprisingly weak. At the time of writing, rates in the MR segment are around USD 8,000 per day – double the level earlier this autumn, certainly, but still some way below what an MR vessel requires in order to break even. The same applies to crude oil tankers like the Suezmax vessels.

More OPEC production and higher global natural gas prices widen crude oil price spreads
More OPEC production and higher global natural gas prices widen crude oil price spreads

AJOT | December 03, 2021 | Energy News | Conventional | By The Numbers

Rising crude oil exports from OPEC members that produce mostly medium-sulfur or high-sulfur crude oils, also called sour crude oils, and higher natural gas prices have contributed to lower prices for sour crude oils relative to low-sulfur (sweet) crude oils.

Oil rises as the market downplays the Omicron threat and brushes off bearish OPEC+ outcome - Rystad Energy

AJOT | December 03, 2021 | Energy News | Conventional | By The Numbers

Oil prices are rising today, continuing their positive vaccine news euphoria, as the market downplays – for now – the Omicron threat and bushes off the otherwise bearish outcome of the OPEC+ meeting.

Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI) reaches 3,902.15 points
Valencia Containerised Freight Index (VCFI) reaches 3,902.15 points

AJOT | December 03, 2021 | Ports & Terminals | Ports | By The Numbers

Since August the increases in the VCFI have been lower than in previous months, especially between March and June when the increases in these periods were in double digits

Southern Calif. will continue to see an uneven recovery through 2022

AJOT | December 03, 2021 | International Trade | Commodity | By The Numbers

SCAG Economic Summit offers a promising, but cautious forecast as labor shortages and supply chain disruptions continue to impact the regional economy

Oil prices at a crossroad ahead of OPEC+ meeting as Omicron looms - Rystad Energy

AJOT | December 02, 2021 | Energy News | Conventional | By The Numbers

Oil prices are at a crossroad today as the OPEC+ meeting is seen by traders as the only likely force to change the bearish environment that the Omicron variant has introduced.

In 2020, the value of energy trade between the United States and Canada declined
In 2020, the value of energy trade between the United States and Canada declined

AJOT | December 02, 2021 | Energy News | Conventional | By The Numbers

In 2020, the value of U.S. energy imports from Canada totaled $58 billion—accounting for more than one-fifth of the value of all U.S. imports from Canada. The value of U.S. energy imports from Canada fell by 31% in 2020 compared with 2019, and the value of U.S. energy exports to Canada fell 34%, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Drewry World Container Index - 02 Dec
Drewry World Container Index - 02 Dec

AJOT | December 02, 2021 | Maritime News | Liner Shipping | By The Numbers

Drewry’s composite World Container index decreased by 1.5% to $9,050.77 per 40ft container this week.

Triggering more lockdowns, Omicron could cost oil demand almost 3 million bpd in early 2022
Triggering more lockdowns, Omicron could cost oil demand almost 3 million bpd in early 2022

AJOT | December 02, 2021 | Energy News | Conventional | By The Numbers

The new Omicron variant of Covid-19 could cost the global oil market as much as 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of demand in the first quarter of 2022, bringing total expected demand down from 98.6 million bpd to 95.7 million bpd, if it triggers more lockdowns or restrictions, Rystad Energy projects.

Descartes announces Fiscal 2022 Third Quarter Financial Results

AJOT | December 02, 2021 | By The Numbers | Shipping Technology

The Descartes Systems Group Inc. announced its financial results for its fiscal 2022 third quarter (Q3FY22). All financial results referenced are in United States (US) currency and, unless otherwise indicated, are determined in accordance with US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP).

U.S. pork exports to Mexico show promise
U.S. pork exports to Mexico show promise

AJOT | December 02, 2021 | International Trade | Commodity | By The Numbers

Mexico is the third-largest pork importer in the world and traditionally the largest U.S. market for pork exports by volume. Over the past few years, shipments to this important market have faced headwinds. First, retaliatory tariffs related to Section 232 actions disadvantaged U.S. product. Then the coronavirus pandemic and a weak Mexican economy weighed on demand. With retaliatory tariffs on pork resolved and economic recovery underway, U.S. pork shipments to Mexico recovered in 2021 and are expected to improve further next year. In the second quarter of 2021, Mexico was the top international destination for U.S. pork, with shipments reaching a record high in August and again in September. With Mexican exports elevated and high feed prices keeping production growth moderate, Mexico has looked to the United States for product and will likely continue to do so. This comes at a critical juncture for the U.S. pork industry as Chinese demand is expected to remain below the record levels of 2020, renewing emphasis on traditional markets. November 2021 Retaliatory Duties In March 2018, the United States announced that tariffs would be imposed on steel and aluminum from a number of countries – including Mexico – on national security grounds (Section 232). In response, Mexico imposed retaliatory measures on steel, aluminum, and a variety of agricultural products – including pork. Starting in June 2018, U.S. pork exporters faced a 10-percent tariff in one of their most important markets. This rate rose to 20 percent in July 2018. With these actions, the United States was once again exporting pork to Mexico at most favored nation levels, essentially losing the benefits achieved by the North America Free Trade Agreement. Immediately after the imposition of retaliatory tariffs, U.S. pork exports to Mexico dropped to below year-earlier levels and remained subdued during the rest of the year. From January through May of 2018, U.S. shipments to Mexico were running 7 percent higher than 2017; however, they ended the year 2 percent lower in the face of the tariff-rate disadvantage. This weakness persisted into 2019 as U.S. market share continued to erode. In 2017, the United States captured nearly 90 percent of the Mexico imported pork market versus 83 percent in 2019. Canada was the primary beneficiary as U.S. pork shipments to Mexico came under pressure. In 2018, Canadian exports to Mexico surged 31 percent year-over-year and then grew a further 5 percent in 2019. This resulted in a rise in Canada’s market share of Mexican pork imports to 16 percent compared to 11 percent in 2017. In May 2019, when the United States repealed the 232 tariffs levied on Mexico steel and aluminum, Mexico responded by removing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. pork. Shipments to Mexico showed some recovery but remained below the levels seen in 2017 – prior to the trade dispute. The United States was able to recover market share in 2020 without the headwinds presented by a tariff-rate disadvantage; however, a weak Mexican economy and the coronavirus pandemic created a new challenge for pork trade with Mexico. Pandemic-Related Disruptions With tariff-free access restored, U.S. pork exports to Mexico started 2020 strong, growing 12 percent year-over-year in the first quarter. However, the onset of the coronavirus pandemic quickly began to wreak havoc and weigh on pork shipments to Mexico. By the end of the year, U.S. pork exports to Mexico were virtually flat. Market share recovered, but high pork prices, a weak peso, and economic disruption seriously constrained Mexico’s aggregate import demand, preventing recovery from the low levels shipped in 2019. Processing disruptions and a dramatic shift from foodservice to retail initially caused tight supplies and correspondingly high prices in the United States. This had an immediate impact on pork exports to Mexico, which fell sharply. Record demand from China also made competition for product fierce. Further limiting the ability of Mexico to import U.S. pork was a surging dollar and weak peso. As the year went on, trade stabilized but was unable to overcome sales lost earlier in the year. Outlook While economic recovery in Mexico has been slow and inflation remains a concern, pent-up consumer demand is expected to support pork consumption in 2021 and, in 2022, should allow U.S. exports to return to the rising trend seen before the pandemic. Last year, Mexican pork consumption came under considerable pressure because of weak economic conditions and exceptionally strong import demand in China, which pulled domestic product into export channels. Mexican exports are expected to remain elevated as opportunities in Japan and South Korea are expected to offset slowing shipments to China during 2021. Segments of the Mexican pork sector will continue to become more export oriented, particularly due to growing exports to Japan given the improved market access granted under the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Mexico/Japan Executive Agreement. Furthermore, Mexico is well suited to take advantage of the often-labor-intensive specifications demanded by buyers in Japan. In 2022, Chinese import demand is expected to firm and rekindle opportunities for Mexican exporters in that all- important market. As Mexican exports of high-value pork cuts continue to grow, domestic consumption will be augmented by imported product. With Chinese import demand waning during the rest of this year and the peso strengthening, Mexico will find itself better able to compete for pork imports on the international market. Mexico’s ability to procure imported pork in 2022 is expected to be maintained despite growth in Chinese import demand. This is because Chinese imports will remain below the record levels of 2020, and the Mexican economy is expected to be on stronger footing. Both this year and next, trade will be a key part of meeting Mexico consumers’ demand for pork. This is good news for the U.S. pork sector, which will be looking to offset lower shipments to China in 2021 and 2022 where trade is expected to remain below the record levels of last year. Through September 2021, U.S. pork exports to Mexico increased 30 percent over the same period in 2020. Firm demand has kept hog and pork prices in Mexico above those in the United States, allowing for robust trade with what can sometimes be a price-sensitive market – despite very strong U.S. prices. Expected strength in import demand in Mexico is a key feature underpinning the current U.S. pork export forecast. Returning trade to the levels seen prior to the disruptions of the last two years will help partially offset the impacts of lower shipments to China in 2021. In 2022, strong Mexican import demand is expected to push U.S. pork exports to record levels. Competition to sell product into many international markets will be fierce as Chinese import demand remains below the record levels of 2020, making Mexico particularly important going forward. Given its geographic proximity and existing trade linkages, the United States is well positioned to capitalize on growth in Mexican import demand.

US shale spending set to shake off uncertainty and jump 19% in 2022
US shale spending set to shake off uncertainty and jump 19% in 2022

AJOT | December 02, 2021 | Energy News | Conventional | By The Numbers

US shale expenditure is projected to surge 19.4% next year, leaping from an expected $69.8 billion in 2021 to $83.4 billion, the highest level since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic and signaling the industry’s emergence from a prolonged period of uncertainty and volatility, according to a Rystad Energy report.

Turkish trade deficit widens in November on commodity rally

Bloomberg | December 02, 2021 | International Trade | By The Numbers

Turkey’s trade deficit widened in November as the rally in commodity prices pushed imports higher, according to preliminary data by the country’s Ministry of Trade on Thursday.

Rail Traffic for November and the Week Ending November 27, 2021

AJOT | December 01, 2021 | Intermodal News | Rail | By The Numbers

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending November 27, 2021, as well as volumes for November 2021.

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