Trade and Transportation by the Numbers

Most of world’s top 30 high-impact wells for 2020 seen in Africa and the Americas

AJOT | February 05, 2020 | Energy | By The Numbers

Although 2019 was a disappointing year in terms of high-impact well (HIW) drilling in the oil and gas sector, comparatively stable market conditions are favoring new exploration activity in 2020 for areas that combine high risk and high rewards.

New gas find set to boost UAE energy sufficiency but imports still needed

AJOT | February 05, 2020 | Energy | By The Numbers

A new gas discovery in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which local officials estimate to be holding about 80 trillion cubic feet of gas, will boost the country’s supplies, but more discoveries are needed to reach a goal of becoming net gas exporter by 2030, a Rystad Energy analysis shows.

Sawlog prices fell in 2019

AJOT | February 05, 2020 | International Trade | By The Numbers

Sawlog prices fell throughout the world in 2019 with European prices declining the most, resulting in a more competitive sawmilling sector in Central and Northern Europe, reports the WRQ

Coal-fired electricity generation in New England and New York has diminished

AJOT | February 04, 2020 | Energy | By The Numbers

As many of the coal-fired power plants in New England and New York have either retired or switched fuels, the regions’ coal-fired electricity generation and coal consumption have fallen to near minimal levels.

Guyana’s GDP to skyrocket in coming years as oil output gathers momentum

AJOT | February 04, 2020 | Energy | By The Numbers

Oil production estimated at 1.2 million barrels per day by 2030, Guyana’s total annual oil revenues could approach $30 billion within 10 years, according to fresh research by Rystad Energy.

Vessels Value signals warning on tanker market

AJOT | February 04, 2020 | Maritime | Bulk | By The Numbers

After a positive autumn and winter, recent events have resulted in an increasingly pessimistic short term outlook for the Tanker market. In short, factors contributing to supply growth and demand constriction have combined to bring down Tanker rates.

Coronavirus, Chinese New Year, Asia to Europe prices increase

AJOT | February 03, 2020 | Air Cargo | Airlines | By The Numbers

Asia to Europe has seen a boost in TAC Index prices following pre-Lunar New Year volumes, Shanghai to Europe up 9.16%, Hong Kong to Europe up 1.43%, Shanghai to Amsterdam up 19.4%, Shanghai to London up 4.30%.

Drewry Port Throughput Indices

AJOT | January 22, 2020 | Maritime | Liner Shipping | By The Numbers

The Drewry Container Port Throughput Indices are a series of volume growth/decline indices based on monthly throughput data for a sample of over 220 ports worldwide, representing over 75% of global volumes.

Drewry Maritime Financial Insight - January 2020

AJOT | January 22, 2020 | Maritime | Liner Shipping | By The Numbers

Lines will remain price-takers as the supply-demand fundamentals will work against them although they should be able to remain profitable as long as operating costs are kept in check.

ATA Truck Tonnage Index Increased 3.3% in 2019

AJOT | January 22, 2020 | Intermodal | Trucking | By The Numbers

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 3.3% in all of 2019, about half the annual gain in 2018 (6.7%), for the tenth straight annual increase.

The US is set to experience yet a new energy revolution: Offshore Wind

AJOT | January 21, 2020 | Energy | Alternative | By The Numbers

According to fresh research by Rystad Energy, installed offshore wind capacity in US waters could reach 20 gigawatts (GW) by 2030 and annual investments in the sector could surpass $15 billion by the mid-2020s.

eeSea unveils 2019 Liner Schedule Reliability rankings

AJOT | January 17, 2020 | Maritime | Liner Shipping | By The Numbers

On-time reliability on East/West trades concluded 2019 at 47%. 10% of all arrivals were more than 3 days delayed

Port of Virginia sets new annual volume record

AJOT | January 13, 2020 | Ports & Terminals | Ports | By The Numbers

The Port of Virginia set a new annual record for container cargo volume having handled more than 2.93 million twenty-foot equivalent units, or TEUs, in calendar year 2019, a 3 percent increase over last year’s total.

Wholesale electricity prices were generally lower in 2019, except in Texas

AJOT | January 13, 2020 | Energy | By The Numbers

Record-high electricity demand in the summer led to much higher 2019 wholesale electricity prices in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electricity market.

Oil prices poised for slide as tensions cool

AJOT | January 13, 2020 | Energy | By The Numbers

Dramatic initial price reaction to US-Iranian hostilities in Persian Gulf, although less than before the US shale revolution Oil prices have had a tumultuous week since the US launched a drone attack in Baghdad, killing Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. With tensions peaking after the US and Iran traded missile attacks, oil markets priced in a risk premium. However, as long as the flow of oil barrels to the market is not affected, Rystad Energy continues to see a downward risk to prices, with further pressure on OPEC to implement even deeper production cuts in order to keep Brent oil prices around $60 per barrel through 2020. “It is important to look beyond the rhetoric of the headlines and focus on market fundamentals – including the continued rise of non-OPEC oil supply led by US shale, and flat demand growth – which all points to a surplus, not a deficit, in oil balances in 2020,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Head of Oil Market Research at Rystad Energy. “Prospects of Brent prices slipping below $60 per barrel – even in the midst of an intense geopolitical flare up in the Middle East – are entirely plausible.” Oil prices still react dramatically to news of tensions in the Persian Gulf, although less dramatically now than they would have before the US shale revolution. The importance of the region for oil markets is obvious, given that seven Gulf countries alone – Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Oman and Qatar – produced around 24 million bpd of crude oil in December 2019. 20200110_PR_CrudeProductionMiddleEast.PNG “With the regime in Tehran under heavy sanctions, Iran is no longer an official major global oil producer. This means the real risk of a conflict between the US and Iran gets pushed to neighboring Iraq, where 5,000 American troops are stationed and where Iran is wrestling for political power. Any proxy war played out in Iraq would put the country’s nearly 4.7 million bpd of crude oil and condensate production as risk,” states Tonhaugen. However, one key reason that geopolitically-driven oil price swings are now more subdued relates to the stabilizing effect of US shale oil production on global oil supplies. The stellar growth of shale has introduced a significant counterweight to the market, as it helps to absorb disruptive events such as the September drone attack on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure and the geopolitical tensions that followed the assassination of General Soleimani. Rystad Energy forecasts that the ‘call’ on OPEC (in other words, the market demand for OPEC oil) will average about 28.3 million bpd during the final nine months of 2020. By comparison, OPECs actual production in December 2019 was 29.6 million bpd, and the cartel’s new implied production target for the first quarter of 2020 is 29.2 million bpd.

Energy commodity prices rose more than other goods in 2019

AJOT | January 06, 2020 | Energy | By The Numbers

The energy portion of the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) ended 2019 22% higher than it began the year. Price indexes for other commodity types also increased in 2019, but not as much as the energy commodity index.

Rail Traffic for December and the Week Ending December 28, 2019

AJOT | January 03, 2020 | Intermodal | Rail | By The Numbers

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending December 28, 2019, as well as volumes for December 2019.

Rail Traffic for the Week Ending December 21, 2019

AJOT | December 30, 2019 | Intermodal | Rail | By The Numbers

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 507,589 carloads and intermodal units, down 10.5 percent compared with the same week last year.

FIS Air Freight Report December 23, 2019

AJOT | December 26, 2019 | Air Cargo | General | By The Numbers

China to Europe versus US spreads decrease as the softer decline in China to US rates (still down another 13 cents this week) is matched by an equal decline from China to Europe (down 15 cents).

Don’t get too excited – OPEC needs to do more in 2020

AJOT | December 23, 2019 | Energy | By The Numbers

The 14-country OPEC bloc, Russia, and a host of other OPEC+ countries agreed on 6 December 2019 to bump up the group’s target oil-production cuts by just over half a million barrels per day, from 1.195 million to 1.699 million bpd, effective 1 January 2020.

By the Numbers