U.S. port operations have seen record-breaking volumes while demonstrating remarkable resilience — despite serious structural challenges that could reshape maritime trade patterns in 2025.
The Port of Los Angeles is heading for its best December on record, potentially exceeding 900,000 TEUs, while Long Beach is on track for an all-time annual record of 9.6 million TEUs, according to Bloomberg. But this surge isn't driven by organic demand. As noted by the Journal of Commerce, we're seeing a "disconnect between torrid import growth and tepid domestic demand," as Larry Gross puts it. Instead, this volume spike stems from a perfect storm of three factors: anticipated tariffs under the incoming Trump administration, the looming ILA strike threat for January 15, and an early Lunar New Year.
These surges actually began taking shape much earlier in 2024. According to FourKites' analysis, shippers started accelerating their cargo movements as early as May, well ahead of the first ILA contract deadline — effectively pulling forward the traditional peak season. This early surge was then complicated by two major weather events when Hurricanes Helene and Milton struck in late September and early October, respectively. Helene initially caused a drop in the average time required to move containers by truck after they were released from ports from 176 to 141 hours, likely due to reduced trucking activity, followed by a delayed surge as networks recovered. Hurricane Milton drove times even higher to 196.4 hours — the highest of the period. These weather disruptions, coming during an already stressed period of peak season cargo movements and strike preparation, created significant systemic stress, with hurricane-period transit times averaging 39.3 hours above normal baseline operations.
But rather than collapsing under the strain, ports have demonstrated what I'd call adaptive efficiency. Our analysis also showed Seattle emerging as a model of stability while Oakland effectively handled diverted cargo, demonstrating how secondary ports can provide critical relief valves during disruptions.
Port Productivity
However, Dennis Daggett of the ILA raises a valid point about port productivity metrics that deserves more attention. When he argues that comparing U.S. gateway ports to pure transshipment hubs is "like comparing apples to oranges," he's highlighting a fundamental issue in how we measure port efficiency. U.S. ports handle complex intermodal transfers and extensive customs procedures that pure transshipment hubs don't face.
Yet despite record volumes, we're not seeing significant bottlenecks in drayage, warehousing, or chassis availability. The rail network remains "generally fluid," though intermodal train speeds are running slightly below normal — a manageable constraint given the circumstances.
This resilience suggests that U.S. port infrastructure isn't as constrained as sometimes portrayed. As Mark Sisson from AECOM notes, Los Angeles handles 260,000 TEUs per 1,000 feet of wharf, compared to Vancouver's 391,000, indicating significant room for efficiency gains without major infrastructure investments.
While the U.S. port system is more adaptable than many give it credit for, it will be tested again in 2025 as port strikes and shifting trade patterns might fundamentally reshape maritime commerce on both coasts. The coming months, particularly with the January ILA deadline looming, will likely determine whether this resilience can be maintained under even greater pressure.
