BookYourCargo (BYC) today released the January forecast for the BYC Drayage Spot Market Index, reflecting the impact of the continued port disruptions and market fluctuations as the holiday season produced a further spike in consumer spending.
In November 2021, Vancouver, British Columbia was hit with significant inclement weather, leading to flooding and ultimately delaying the country’s ability to clear port congestions as railways, ports and roads were all underwater. At its peak, the port was seeing a backlog of over 60 ships adrift or at anchor. According to the BookYourCargo Drayage Spot Market Index, Vancouver is now one of the most congested ports in North America, albeit with a more reasonable 18 ships adrift or at anchor in January.
Destructive weather patterns, partnered with an increase in consumer spending as a result of the holiday season, have led to further port congestion and drayage rate increases across the board. Overall, national drayage rates in 2021 were 51% higher than they were in 2020. Rate increases, low carrier capacity, and low availability are anticipated to carry over into quarter one of 2022 due to the persistent port bottlenecks.
“Los Angeles and Long Beach continue to be the most congested ports in the United States, due in part to the fact that 40% of imports are brought in through these terminals,” said Nimesh Modi, chief executive officer, BYC. “With Hanukkah, Christmas, New Years and other holidays causing consumers to spend more in a rush to get gifts on time, LA and Long Beach, as well as other ports the U.S. relies on, were heavily impacted by this dramatic influx of commerce.”
“The last two years have demonstrated some fatal flaws in our current supply chain system,” continued Modi. “As a result, the California Department of Transportation is finally investing in its ports, providing LA/LB and Oakland with $57.5 million to improve their terminals in an effort to improve efficiency and sustainability.”
The BYC Drayage Index tracks data and metrics from BYC customers and partners in real time to produce monthly rates dating back to 2016. These rates can be evaluated to accurately predict average load costs and potential delays in the coming months for drayage transportation across various North American regions.
BYC December 2021 Review
BYC’s Forecast for January 2022
- The December 2021 national drayage spot rate was 9% less than November 2021
- Examining the market at a wider scale, December’s 2021 national drayage spot rate was 20.4% more than the national rate in December 2020
- January 2022 drayage rates are 32% higher than this time last year
- The most congested ports are: Los Angeles & Long Beach (102 vessels adrift or at anchor), Vancouver (18 vessels adrift or at anchor) and Oakland (16 vessels adrift or at anchor)
- Northeast region rates are predicted to rise more than 10% above existing levels with carrier availability three weeks out, low capacity and tight chassis availability
- Southeast region rates are expected to rise more than 10% above existing levels with carrier availability three weeks out, low capacity and tight chassis availability
- Midwest region rates are predicted to rise more than 5% above existing levels with carrier availability one week out, low capacity and tight chassis availability
- Southwest region rates are predicted to rise more than 15% above existing levels with carrier availability five weeks out, very low capacity and extremely tight chassis availability
- West region rates are predicted to rise more than 25% above existing levels with carrier availability six weeks out, very low capacity and extremely tight chassis availability