Asia’s factory managers remained downbeat about the world’s trade engines in May, even as battered economies start to re-open across the region.
Purchasing managers indexes for South Korea, Japan and Taiwan fell, according to data released by IHS Markit on Monday. Readings for Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines improved but remained below 50, the dividing line between contraction and expansion.
The factory data underscore the fragile and uneven recovery expected in Asia as prospects continue to weaken for countries in the northeast.
Northeast Asia “has had more success in containing the virus, which has led to quicker recovery in mobility and bodes well for domestic demand, but they still have to contend with a very weak external environment and a potential downturn in the semiconductor sector,” said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and Southeast Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Singapore.
High-frequency figures recently have shown an uptick in global demand, with risks that the recovery across economies will be uneven without a vaccine for the coronavirus.
Manufacturing gauges are signaling more relief so far than services sectors, with governments only now beginning to ease lockdowns and allow for more mobility of consumers.
In South Korea, a bellwether for global trade, exports posted another double-digit decline in May. Overseas shipments fell 24% from a year earlier, the trade ministry said Monday, compared with economists’ forecast of a 25% contraction.
For now, there appear to be few signs of a turnaround in South Korean exports without broader global demand also picking up.
“It seems unlikely that conditions will allow for a robust pick-up in demand any time soon,” IHS Markit economist Joe Hayes said in a statement. “Below-capacity operating rates will also essentially cap potential growth in the near-term.”
