If the world economy is stabilizing as some analysts suggest and many investors are betting, a couple of Asia’s biggest exporters didn’t get the memo.
Shipments of goods from Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, suffered their largest drop in three years in October, hurt not just by the U.S.-China trade war but also by extreme weather at home. Japan’s exports to South Korea slumped 23% amid a lingering dispute that’s soured trade relations between the two.
That follows a mixed picture earlier this week from Singapore, where data showed better-than-expected demand for electronics, but exports overall still had their worst year-on-year showing since June.
Another health check on Asia will come Thursday when South Korea — the world’s trade canary — releases a reading on export demand for the first 20 days of the month. Where South Korea goes, others typically follow.
Taken together, the mixed set of numbers is a reminder that even amid some signs that the worst may be past for global demand, there’s still a lot hanging on whether or not the U.S. and China reach a deal.
And on that score, there may be a case to temper the optimism.
Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of China’s Global Times newspaper, tweeted Wednesday that few Chinese expect a deal soon — and even if one is reached, it “will be limited.” He also warned that China may be ready for a deal, but is prepared for a prolonged trade war.
U.S. President Donald Trump also sounded ready for either outcome. “I have a good relationship with China. We’ll see what happens, but I’m very happy right now,” he told reporters on Tuesday in Washington. “If we don’t make a deal with China, I’ll just raise the tariffs even higher.”