The travel industry faces a strained present and an uncertain future, but you’d never know it from the swarm of suitors sizing up potential offers for Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd.
Even as carriers’ shares sink on predictions that air travel will take years to return to normal passenger volumes, at least 20 prospective acquirers have expressed initial interest in buying Virgin Australia. That makes the collapsed airline a contested asset in an environment where many deals have been put on ice. They’ve been working to prepare indicative bids by Friday’s deadline, when Virgin’s administrator, Deloitte, will be able to see who’s serious about rescuing the carrier.
The offers give a glimpse of how buyers think they can reform Virgin Australia’s money-losing operations into a sound investment. The question for administrators is which candidate has the best chance of untangling the knot of regional politics and industry uncertainty surrounding Australia’s second-biggest airline.
‘Oasis in Aviation’
Virgin entered voluntary administration last month after being overwhelmed by A$6.5 billion ($4.2 billion) in debt amplified by years of losses and a severe revenue shortfall from coronavirus-related travel cancellations. Qantas Airways Ltd., the other major carrier in the country, had said it has enough liquidity to withstand current conditions until December 2021.
The reason buyers are drawn to the business is that Australia is “something of an oasis in aviation,” in part because of the size of the market, according to Peter Harbison, chairman of market intelligence provider CAPA Centre for Aviation.
“It is essentially necessarily a duopoly, possibly some space for a little bit more, but it’s a very valuable market,” he said in an interview. “It’s also quite likely to come back fairly quickly, because of the way we’ve handled the epidemic so far.”
The strength of Australia’s domestic market also makes it tempting for bidders to return the revitalized Virgin Australia to its roots as a low-cost carrier, Neil Hansford, chairman of consultancy firm Strategic Aviation Solutions, said in an interview.
The soaring air passenger traffic on the east coast routes that connect Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane could be appealing, he said. Sydney-Melbourne is the fifth-busiest domestic route globally, with about 10 million seats a year, according to OAG Aviation Worldwide.
However, any attempt to make the reborn Virgin Australia a low-cost carrier could meet headwinds.
The head of Australia’s competition watchdog, Rod Sims, has already called for Virgin to return as a full-service carrier. A bid by an overseas buyer would also be subject to scrutiny from the Foreign Investment Review Board, whose rules were tightened in March to require a review of foreign takeovers of any size.
After Friday’s deadline, Deloitte will allow shortlisted bidders to prepare binding offers by June 12, targeting a deal by the end of that month. The treatment of creditors, and the indebtedness of the reborn Virgin Australia, will be a key factor in deciding the winner, according to the industry experts.
Virgin’s secured creditors are owed A$2.28 billion, Deloitte said in April. If they refuse to waive enough of what they’re owed, the final asking price for the airline could be as high as A$3.5 billion, Hansford said.
“If they can get it with a haircut for creditors, and it’s still an operating business, it’s a good buy,” he said.
