California’s export trade recorded a strong 5.3% annual gain in the latest numbers, causing the state's share of the nation's export trade to shoot up to 9.3%. Equally remarkable was that exports from Texas fell 6.9% year-over-year while overseas shipments from Florida declined by 4.2%. U.S. exports overall slipped by 0.7%.

Whether California's foreign trade continues on this growth path remains to be seen. Editorial writers and economic affairs pundits in both the United States and abroad have lately achieved a rare degree of unanimity in warning that the new tariffs President-Elect Donald Trump has promised to impose on nearly all U.S. imports from almost every source will be harmful both to international trade and to America’s own economic interests.

Of course, the ultimate impact depends on how the nations' trading partners react. By next month, we should have a clearer idea of how tumultuous 2025 will be for members of California’s foreign trade community.

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