• China-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Daily) increased slightly for the second week in a row to $1,366/FEU which is 4% up on 2017 prices but well behind (45%) last year’s high prices.
• China-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Daily) increased by just under $100 since last week to $2,708/FEU – the biggest price rise since early September. That still leaves prices 19% down on 2018 but they are 53% up on 2017 and 4% up on 2016.
Commentary
“Based on FBX historical data, a core indicator of peak season is mid-month rate increases that do not drop during the rest of the month. China-West Coast prices are 3% higher than early October, which seems to indicate the potential for a significant early November GRI.
The first week of November was when prices peaked for the season last year, driven by holiday sale stocking and a looming China trade tariff change. The same conditions apply this year, with importers having had plenty of lead time to front load before December 15’s tariff change. So while November should see a rate increase, it will likely still be far from sufficient to close the 45% gap between 2019 and 2018 transpacific pricing.
