• China-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Daily) are $1,530/FEU. In an affirmation of peak season demand, early November’s 15% increase seems to be holding (still 13% up). While still 37% under 2018’s blockbuster prices the gap has closed 8% points since last week. Prices are even 6% up on 2017 prices.
• China-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Daily) are at $2,664/FEU. The recent price rise has already largely retracted. Less affected by advance shipping, the gap on last year’s prices (25%) is narrower than the West Coast, and they are 35% up on this week in 2017.
Commentary
“Historically, peak season prices hit their zenith in early November, with 2018 seeing peak season prices then shed 8% between the middle and end of November. This year, transpacific peak prices are hovering at around $1,500 – nearly $900 less than peak season last year. But will they be dropping from here?
Even though December 15’s trade tariff was recently deferred, there will still be a steady stream of advance shipping orders which may help avoid a total price free-fall. Early indications are that prices will indeed fall and that we’ve reached the peak of peak season. While 2020’s new low-sulfur fuel regulations may help keep prices from falling too dramatically, most signs are pointing to this being the full extent of peak season. Flagging global production, some diverting of sourcing from China and strong supply management by suppliers have held prices back,” said Eytan Buchman, CMO, Freightos.
