Compared to last year, the air freight peak season is a non-starter. China-US general rates continued to ease following the Black Friday bottleneck, down 35c this week to $4.47.
In contrast, the transpacific ocean freight peak season has been a bonanza, with prices still more than double last year. However, doubtful the demand would stay up, carriers canceled the December 1 GRI. This week, West Coast prices are $254 down an; East Coast prices are $177 down.
“Many importers from China front-loaded in advance of January 1’s scheduled increase to the 10% trade tariff. That boosted transpacific peak pricing, but there is a limit as to how much front-loading you can, or should, do. And with the hump of pre-Christmas demand largely over, prices have faltered recently.
Now that the tariff increase has been given a 90-day reprieve, transpacific prices should continue trending downwards, in all likelihood up until Chinese New Year.” - Zvi Schreiber, CEO, Freightos
Air Freight Rates
Date |
Europe-US | China-US | China - Europe |
11/5/2018 |
$1.50 | $4.42 | $2.80 |
11/12/2018 |
$1.54 | $4.67 | $2.97 |
11/19/2018 |
$1.54 | $4.73 | $2.97 |
11/26/2018 |
$1.55 | $4.82 | $3.25 |
11/26/2018 |
$1.52 | $4.47 | $3.28 |
Increase since 11/05/2018 |
1% | 1% | 17% |
There hasn’t much of a peak season so far for air freight, with only China-Europe general rates increasing significantly (17%) since November 5. With the Halloween shopping season over, China-US rates actually dropped.
This week last year was in complete contrast. Air cargo in Europe hit capacity for the first time in ten years, and many shippers were forced to pay sky-high air rates to get their shipment loaded.
Since last year, airlines increased capacity, but another reason for a dull peak pricing this year is that last peak, air freight’s reputation of ease of availability and reasonable pricing took a hit, increasing LCL’s attractiveness as an alternative mode.
Ocean Freight Rates
FBX Lane |
Global | China - US West Coast |
China - US East Coast |
China - North Europe |
North Europe - US East Coast |
This Week |
$1,589 | $2,198 | $3,601 | $1,477 | $1,515 |
Last Week |
-3% | -10% | -5% | 1% | 0% |
Last Year* |
56% | 128% | 123% | 11% | 34% |
* Compared to the corresponding week in 2017
Although transpacific prices dropped this week (West Coast from $2,452 to $2,198, East Coast from $3,778 to $3,601), they are still more than twice prices this time last year.
This week makes the 18th week in a row that China-East Coast prices have been above the $3,000 mark. Similarly, for China-West Coast its the 17th week (higher than $2,000), although this run will likely end next week.
