Key insights:

1. Ocean rates continued to slide this week, but prices for container ship charters and secondhand sales, along with increased scheduled capacity through October, suggest carriers do not expect a collapse in volumes. 

2. Freightos.com marketplace air cargo rates show China - US West Coast prices have fallen 15% in the last month in what is typically a slow season for transpacific air, though rates are still about twice the pre-pandemic norm.  

3. With the return of transatlantic passenger travel the Freightos Air Index shows Europe - US East Coast prices are 28% lower than a year ago, but still about 50% higher than normal due to added fuel costs and labor shortages. 

Asia-US rates:

• Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Daily) fell 6% to $6,593/FEU. This rate is 64% lower than the same time last year.

• Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Daily) increased 4% to $10,316/FEU, and are 47% lower than rates for this week last year.

Analysis

Ocean rates from Asia to the US West Coast continued their slide, falling 6% since last week to about $6,500/FEU, a level last seen back in May of 2021 and two-thirds lower than a year ago. Asia - N. Europe prices dipped 7% in the last two weeks and are 30% lower than last year, after being stable since the end of April. Asia - US East Coast rates ticked up 4%, possibly a sign of worsening congestion, but are nearly 50% lower than this time last year. 

Despite the falling prices, there are signs that ocean carriers don’t view this trend as the start of a complete collapse. Continued elevated rates for secondhand and chartered container ships show ocean carriers are still looking for capacity. Carriers have also scheduled 20% more transpacific capacity through October compared to last year. 

These moves also suggest that carriers don’t anticipate port congestion to dissipate anytime soon: though trucker protests in Oakland were no longer impacting operations by the start of the week, congestion at inland rail hubs are creating a container backlog in LA/Long Beach, and a buildup of empty containers is slowing operations on the East Coast.  

Ex-Asia air cargo typically experiences a lull in the summer months before the air peak season in the fall. Freightos.com marketplace rates show China - US West Coast prices have fallen 15% in the last month, though rates are still about twice the pre-pandemic norm. With the return of transatlantic passenger travel the Freightos Air Index shows Europe - US East Coast prices are 28% lower than a year ago, but with added fuel costs and labor shortages are still about 50% higher than normal.