FTR reports U.S. trailer net orders for August rose 17% month-over-month (m/m) to 6,661 units but were down 30% year-over-year (y/y). Orders continue to run well below seasonal expectations, averaging just 5,700 units per month over the last four months. Despite the m/m increase, August 2024’s net order total was the fifth lowest in the past four years. Cancellations as a percentage of total gross orders remained above 30% for the fourth consecutive month.

Stagnant truck freight fundamentals in 2024 are continuing to suppress U.S. trailer demand. Total trailer build decreased by 3% m/m and 39% y/y in August, totaling just 17,535 units. This figure is 30% lower than the average August build level over the past five years and the lowest monthly output since December 2020.

With net orders continuing to lag production substantially, backlogs in August dropped by 12,515 units, ending just above 87,000 units. The larger m/m decrease in backlogs compared to production resulted in the backlog/build ratio decreasing to 5.0 months – the lowest since July 2020 and nearly a month below the historical average prior to 2020. The current ratio indicates that there is a steadily growing incentive for manufacturers to continue slowing production.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “FTR believes that weakening trailer demand during 2024 to date indicates that in the near term some fleets are likely prioritizing capital expenditures on new power units over investments in new trailer equipment, whether due to reduced profitability or shifting trade cycles. Higher-than-ideal trailer inventories at dealers across most segments, reduced trailer capital expenditures at fleets, and declining backlogs likely will exert downward pressure on build rates for the rest of 2024. As with the Class 8 market, order boards opening during September mean that 2025 order levels likely will start to dictate the extent and duration of further potential production cuts.”