FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for November rose to a 3.02 reading from 0.49 in October with carrier market conditions as measured by the TCI the strongest since April 2022. The improved TCI stems from lower fuel costs and less challenging rates, partially offset by weaker utilization. FTR still expects the truck freight market to be consistently favorable for carriers by the second quarter of 2025, but the outlook is somewhat softer than it was previously due to weaker growth forecasts for freight demand, utilization, and rates.
Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “A few outliers aside, our forecast indicates positive TCI readings over the next couple of years, but it does not show the index more favorable for carriers than it was in November until the third quarter of this year. The first half of 2025 still looks to be one of transition from the tough market of the past couple of years to one in which carriers have greater ability to achieve a desirable margin. We will be watching Trump administration policy initiatives closely for any developments that might shift the trajectory of the truck freight market.”
The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions are: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. The individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. Conversely, a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.
