There’s a silver lining to the Italian political storm: the tumbling euro.
For the past year, a strengthening currency has been constraining the recovery in European corporate earnings, hurting exporters in particular. In recent weeks, the picture has changed: the euro has lost about 7 percent since mid-April and dropped to levels not seen in 10 months as attempts to form a government in Rome floundered, thrusting Europe into crisis once again.
The latest figures still pale in comparison with expected profit growth of 23 percent for this year for S&P 500 companies. This means there could be room on the upside for European earnings estimates, now that the euro is firmly below $1.20, a level strategists and investors see as a pain threshold for companies.
Given the usual lag of a few months between currency moves and earnings revisions, European stocks could see profit upgrades in the coming months if the Italian political crisis doesn’t completely derail the euro-area’s economic recovery. Strategists have said that a 10 percent swing in the euro usually translates into a 5 percent to 6 percent move in European earnings.
But not all the region’s companies will benefit from the falling currency, said Isabelle Mateos y Lago, chief multi-asset strategist at BlackRock Investment Institute. “The impact of the contagion from Italy is asymmetrical across the euro zone. The winners of a lower euro will mostly be French and German companies, which won’t see much of a rise in credit costs.”
For southern European companies, the sudden resurgence of political jitters means credit conditions could quickly deteriorate, which would offset the benefits of a lower currency, Mateos y Lago said.