The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, fell 0.3% in June from May, after a one-month increase, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). From June 2023 to June 2024 the index rose 0.7%.
The level of for-hire freight shipments in June measured by the Freight TSI (138.6) was 2.3% below the all-time high of 141.8 reached in August 2022 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000.
BTS will release the passenger and combined indexes for June next month, because air passenger travel continues to deviate from regular seasonal patterns, as it adjusts to the effects induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The May passenger and combined indexes are available on the BTS website. Air freight for June is also a statistical estimate. Since air freight makes up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled with the air freight estimate included.
The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal movement, which enables month-to-month comparisons.
Analysis: The Freight TSI decreased in June due to seasonally adjusted decreases in trucking, air freight, and water, while rail carload, rail intermodal and pipeline grew.
The June decrease came in the context of positive results for several other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index grew by 0.6% in June, reflecting increases of 2.8% in utilities, 0.3% in mining, and 0.4% in manufacturing. Housing starts were up 3.0% and Personal Income increased by 0.2%.
The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was down 0.2 points to 48.5, for a third month of contraction in manufacturing. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of U.S. manufacturing, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.
Although the June Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the May index is now being released. The index increased 0.5% from April to May. Seasonally adjusted transit and air passenger were up, while rail passenger declined.
The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 —the first month of the pandemic— for thirty-six months in a row but remains below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020) for the 51st consecutive month.
Trend: The June freight index decrease was the third in four months, leaving the index 0.4% above its level in February 2024. It followed an increase in May, leaving the index 2.3% above its level in April 2024. The index increased 4.1% since August 2021. The June Freight TSI exceeds the pandemic low in April 2020 by 11.4%; the index increased month-over-month in 25 of the 50 months since that low.
Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in June 2024 (138.6) were 45.7% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (95.1). The June 2024 level was 2.3% below the historic peak (since 2000) reached in August 2022 (141.8).
Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were down 0.2% in June compared to the end of 2023.
Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 1.1% in the five years from June 2019 and are up 15.6% in the 10 years from June 2014.
Same month of previous year: June 2024 for-hire freight shipments were up 0.7% from June 2023.
2nd quarter changes: The freight TSI fell 1.2% in the 1st quarter, rose 1.0% in the 2nd quarter.
