Here is Rystad Energy’s power note with analyst Fabian Rønningen:
March 2022 was the most expensive month for power prices in European history.
March will end up as the month with the highest average spot prices ever in the big five European markets (Germany, France, Italy, UK, Spain), breaking the previous record from December.
Of the big five markets, Italy will end up with highest average prices, above €300 for the month of March.
UK, France and Spain are not far behind, all close to €300, and then a sizable gap down to Germany around €250 and the Nordics around €140.
In the futures market, the German front-year contract is now on an increasing trajectory, rising to €186 per MWh at the time of writing, up from as low as €160 at the lowest last week.
The key driver here is higher gas prices, both in the spot market and futures market.
The gas market remains highly volatile, and news driven.
The market remains anxious for clarity on rules governing ruble payments for Russian gas supplies with gas prices increasing in the last few days, closing in on €120 on the front-month.
Warmer weather, more solar power and a stronger wind outlook short term can lead to slightly lower prices for the rest of week 13 and going into week 14, but this is secondary to the gas market
