October 2024 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Up 0.2% from the Previous Month and Up 0.7% from the Same Month Last Year
The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, rose 0.2% in October from September, rising after a one-month decline, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). From October 2023 to October 2024 the index rose 0.7% (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).
The September index was revised to 139.0 from 139.1 in last month's release.
BTS will release the passenger and combined indexes for October next month, because air passenger travel continues to deviate from regular seasonal patterns, as it adjusts to the effects induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The September passenger and combined indexes are available on the BTS website. Air freight for October and waterborne for September and October are also statistical estimates. Since air freight and waterborne make up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled with the air freight and waterborne estimates included.
The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal movement, which enables month-to-month comparisons.
Analysis: The Freight TSI increased in October due to seasonally adjusted increases in trucking, water, and air freight while rail carload, rail intermodal, and pipeline declined.
The October increase came in the context of mixed results in other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index was down 0.3% in October, reflecting declines of 0.5% in manufacturing while utilities grew 0.7% in and mining grew by 0.3%. Housing starts were down 3.1% and Personal Income increased by 0.6%.
The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was down 0.7 to 46.5. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of U.S. manufacturing, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.
Although the October Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the September index is now being released. The index decreased 0.4% from August to September. Seasonally adjusted air passenger and rail passenger declined, while transit was unchanged.
The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 —the first month of the pandemic— for forty months in a row but remains below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020) for the 55th consecutive month.
Trend: The October freight index increase followed a decrease in September and was the third increase in four months leaving the index 0.6% above its level in June 2024. The index increased 4.9% since August 2021. The October Freight TSI exceeds the pandemic low in April 2020 by 12.0%; the index increased month-over-month in 32 of the 54 months since that low.
For additional historical data, go to TSI data.
Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in October 2024 (139.3) were 46.5% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (95.1). The October 2024 level was 1.5% below the historic peak (since 2000) reached in August 2019 (141.4) (Table 1A).
Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were up 0.5% in October compared to the end of 2023 (Table 3).
Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 1.2% in the five years from October 2019 and are up 13.4% in the 10 years from October 2014 (Table 5).
Same month of previous year: October 2024 for-hire freight shipments were up 0.7% from October 2023 (Tables 4, 5).
The TSI has three seasonally-adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the November 2024 index is scheduled for January 17, 2024.
Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.
BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED.
For charts and discussion on the relationship of the TSI to the economy, see Transportation as an Economic Indicator: Transportation Services Index.
A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.
Table A: Summary of Revisions to Freight TSI in Previous 12 Months
Freight TSI | |||
Current release | Previous month's release | Percent change | |
Oct-23 | 138.4 | 138.5 | -0.07 |
Nov-23 | 137.7 | 137.7 | 0.00 |
Dec-23 | 138.6 | 138.5 | 0.07 |
Jan-24 | 134.3 | 134.3 | 0.00 |
Feb-24 | 137.7 | 138.0 | -0.22 |
Mar-24 | 137.1 | 137.0 | 0.07 |
Apr-24 | 135.5 | 135.4 | 0.07 |
May-24 | 139.0 | 138.8 | 0.14 |
Jun-24 | 138.5 | 138.4 | 0.07 |
Jul-24 | 138.9 | 138.9 | 0.00 |
Aug-24 | 140.3 | 140.3 | 0.00 |
Sep-24 | 139.0 | 139.1 | -0.07 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
NOTE: The entire Freight TSI is revised monthly. Changes shown only for the previous 12 months.
Table 1: Freight Transportation Services Index since April 2024
Percent Change from Previous Month
(Seasonally-Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
Freight | ||
Index | Percent change | |
April | 135.5 | -1.2 |
May | 139.0 | 2.6 |
June | 138.5 | -0.4 |
July | 138.9 | 0.3 |
August | 140.3 | 1.0 |
September | 139.0 | -0.9 |
October | 139.3 | 0.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 1A: Annual High and Low Points in Freight Transportation Services Index, 2020-2024
Year | Month of peak | Value | Month of low | Value |
2019 | August | 141.4 | December | 136.1 |
2020 | January | 135.9 | April | 124.4 |
2021 | April | 136.9 | February | 132.6 |
2022 | March | 139.9 | November | 135.4 |
2023 | February | 140.0 | May | 137.2 |
2024 | August | 140.3 | January | 134.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2021-2024
Percent change from previous month
2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
Percent | Percent | Percent | Percent | |
January | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | -3.1 |
February | -2.7 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
March | 2.0 | 1.0 | -1.2 | -0.4 |
April | 1.2 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -1.2 |
May | -0.8 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 2.6 |
June | -0.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.4 |
July | -0.7 | -0.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
August | -0.8 | 0.7 | -0.4 | 1.0 |
September | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.9 |
October | 1.1 | -1.0 | -0.1 | 0.2 |
November | 0.7 | -1.9 | -0.5 | |
December | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2021-2024
2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
January | 136.3 | 137.5 | 137.3 | 134.3 |
February | 132.6 | 138.5 | 140.0 | 137.7 |
March | 135.3 | 139.9 | 138.3 | 137.1 |
April | 136.9 | 139.1 | 137.4 | 135.5 |
May | 135.8 | 138.8 | 137.2 | 139.0 |
June | 134.8 | 139.2 | 137.7 | 138.5 |
July | 133.9 | 138.2 | 138.9 | 138.9 |
August | 132.8 | 139.1 | 138.3 | 140.3 |
September | 133.8 | 139.4 | 138.6 | 139.0 |
October | 135.3 | 138.0 | 138.4 | 139.3 |
November | 136.3 | 135.4 | 137.7 | |
December | 136.7 | 135.8 | 138.6 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Table 3: Freight Transportation Services Index Year-to-Date Change, 2015-2024
Percent change to October from December of the previous year
Year | Freight |
2015 | -0.2 |
2016 | 2.2 |
2017 | 4.6 |
2018 | 4.3 |
2019 | -0.1 |
2020 | -2.6 |
2021 | 0.5 |
2022 | 1.0 |
2023 | 1.9 |
2024 | 0.5 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent Change in the October Freight TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
October Freight TSI | Percent change | |
2015 | 123.1 | 0.2 |
2016 | 123.4 | 0.2 |
2017 | 130.6 | 5.8 |
2018 | 139.7 | 7.0 |
2019 | 137.7 | -1.4 |
2020 | 132.6 | -3.7 |
2021 | 135.3 | 2.0 |
2022 | 138.0 | 2.0 |
2023 | 138.4 | 0.3 |
2024 | 139.3 | 0.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5: Freight Transportation Services Index from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2024 (October to October)
Since | Duration | Freight TSI |
2023 | 1 | 0.7 |
2022 | 2 | 0.9 |
2021 | 3 | 3.0 |
2020 | 4 | 5.1 |
2019 | 5 | 1.2 |
2018 | 6 | -0.3 |
2017 | 7 | 6.7 |
2016 | 8 | 12.9 |
2015 | 9 | 13.2 |
2014 | 10 | 13.4 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
Brief Explanation of the TSI
The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries. The freight index measure changes in freight shipments while the passenger index measures changes in passenger travel.
The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire trucking,
Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland waterways transportation,
Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and
Air freight.
The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local transit,
Intercity passenger rail, and
Passenger air transportation.
The index does not include intercity bus, sightseeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.
The TSI includes only domestic "for-hire" freight and passenger transportation. For-hire transportation consists of freight or passenger transport services provided by a firm to external customers for a fee. The TSI does not include taxi services, paid ride services in personal motor vehicles (e.g., Uber, Lyft, etc.), intercity bus services, in-house transportation (vehicles owned and operated by private firms for their own use), or noncommercial passenger travel (e.g., trips in the household car).
_-_127500_-_e21312e7b1c98e3e36202eabff68e9a4170dc902_lqip.jpg)
