Performance in tankers and dry bulk is likely to remain sound in 2025, with tankers making above-average profits, supported by high tonne-mile demand, while oversupply and easing of disruptions in the Red Sea will put pressure on global container shipping, Fitch Ratings says.
We expect demand to grow in oil tankers and dry bulk in 2025, although more slowly than in 2024. The International Energy Agency forecasts oil demand to increase by 1 million barrels per day in 2025, which will be mostly met by supply growth from outside OPEC+. Increased tonne-miles related to oil exports from Russia will support overall demand. Easing of geopolitical tensions and the Red Sea disruptions could affect demand growth.
We expect dry bulk volumes to grow by about 1% in 2025 compared to 2.7% in 2024. This is driven by reduced global iron ore and coal demand and trade tensions. Grain exports will continue to provide some upside. We expect broadly flat shipping rates in these segments in 2025, after some improvements in 2024.
We expect container transport volumes to increase by about 3% in 2025; this will be outstripped by supply growth of 5%. The orderbook, at 26% of the existing fleet, has remained high despite new deliveries. This reflects continuing new order intakes to replace ageing vessels and upgrade fleets to multi-fuel capability to address emission reduction targets. Average sailing speeds increased in 2024, driven by the Red Sea disruptions. There is therefore some leeway for speeds to come down in 2025 and absorb capacity, as we highlighted in our Global Shipping Outlook 2025.
We expect container shipping rates to continue declining in 2025. Rates increased in early 2024 due to the Red Sea disruptions that resulted in sailing around the Cape of Good Hope. However, rates have been declining since August, and we expect this to continue in 2025, as capacity absorption is progressively offset by new deliveries. While this is likely to reduce the industry’s profitability, the contracted portion of revenues (most contracts are for less than one year) will partially offset the impact of spot rate declines on shippers’ performance. Faster-than-expected easing of disruptions could lead to quicker spot rate declines.
