British Columbia’s forestry industry is bracing for disruptions from a potential rail strike that would quickly undercut a sector that adds more than C$6 billion ($4.4 billion) to western Canada’s economy.

The province’s forest sector relies on rail to transport lumber and other forestry products across North America and to ports for overseas shipments. A rail stoppage by Canadian National Railway Co. and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. — expected just after midnight New York time if the companies can’t reach a deal with unionized workers — would bring costly disruptions to the industry within days, according to the BC Council of Forest Industries.

“Within the first week of a strike, we could face widespread mill curtailments, further threatening jobs and economic activity in our communities,” Kurt Niquidet, chief economist for the industry group, said in a Wednesday email. That could lead to “tens of millions of dollars in weekly losses for the forest products manufacturing sector.”

BC’s forest sector generated 56,120 jobs and generated C$6.4 billion in gross domestic product in 2022, according to the provincial government. The sector accounted for 26% of provincial manufacturing sales and almost a quarter of the province’s total commodity export value, it said. BC is home to major forestry companies including West Fraser Timber Co., Canfor Corp and Interfor Corp.

The western Canadian province exported about C$11 billion worth of product last year and “the majority of that is dependent on rail,” Niquidet said. “There are limited opportunities to divert volumes via truck and store inventories, thus we expect significant curtailments within a week or two if a strike occurs.”

About 85% of what West Fraser ships moves by rail and there isn’t sufficient trucking capacity in Canada to meaningfully pivot to alternative transport methods, company spokeswoman Joyce Wagenaar said. 

“In the event of rail disruption, decisions pertaining to future production may be required,” she said.