Russia’s oil exports from its main western ports look like they could slump in the coming weeks if a lineup of cargo loadings from the terminals is any guide.
Russia, and the companies that take its crude, need to find more than 80 tankers to collect about 61 million barrels of crude from the nation’s main western ports this month.
In part, the emptier list is because the bulk of crude cargoes for March have yet to find buyers. Meanwhile, large numbers of oil tanker owners remain unwilling to let their ships collect Russian barrels while sanctions imposed on Russia in response to the invasion keep being adjusted.
It’s too early still to see any notable change in export rates from Russia’s western terminals following the invasion, according to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
There was already a backlog of ships at Novorossiysk in the Black Sea because of bad weather, meaning there were vessels in situ and waiting. However, if the difficulty organizing shipping persists, then that could start to affect cargo loadings later this month, according to traders.
This, combined with surging freight rates and insurance costs, means companies who’re willing to buy Russian caroges simply can’t find suitable tankers to ship them to their destinations.
Vessel owners, oil companies and marine insurers became instantly cautious of being involved in Russian crude shipments after the country invaded Ukraine on Thursday, wary of what the sanctions backlash might be. That caused the price of the nation’s flagship Urals grade to plunge to a record discount.
There are no sanctions at this time that would directly significantly impede international oil companies or shipowners from collecting Russian crude, and some traders have already overcome their initial wariness about doing so. But there is still uncertainty among several oil traders - and tanker companies—about dealing with the country’s barrels.
