Russia’s seaborne oil exports edged down to the lowest in almost a month, with maintenance work at the country’s only offshore Arctic field likely contributing to the dip in shipments.
Four-week average crude volumes slipped to 3.16 million barrels a day in the week to Sept. 1, falling by 90,000 barrels a day compared with the previous period. Weekly flows, which are far more volatile, dropped 250,000 barrels a day.
The decline came ahead of a plan by several OPEC+ member countries, including Russia, to ease output curbs from October. But the country’s share of any additions will be tempered by Moscow’s pledge to make deeper cuts to compensate for pumping above its OPEC+ target earlier this year. Its compensation cuts will offset about one-quarter of its allowed increase in October, rising to three-quarters in November.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia was complying with its OPEC+ output target by the end of August.
After the first cargoes carried on tankers sanctioned by the US were successfully delivered to China, Russia has become much more active in putting those ships back to work. At least 11 shipments of crude and refined products have now been made on vessels blacklisted by the US, UK or the European Union, with six of them loaded in August.
Crude processing rates at Russia’s oil refineries averaged 5.52 million barrels a day in the first four weeks of August. That’s the highest average monthly level since July 2023 and a month-on-month increase of about 90,000 barrels a day.
Crude Shipments
A total of 29 tankers loaded 21.7 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Sept. 1, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was down from 23.44 million barrels on 30 ships the previous week.
It means Russia’s seaborne daily crude flows in the week to Sept. 1 fell by about 250,000 barrels to 3.1 million.
The less volatile four-week average was also down, falling by 90,000 barrels a day to 3.16 million from 3.25 million the previous week. Apart from one week when they dipped below 3 million barrels a day, shipments using this measure have ranged between 3.14 million and 3.25 million barrels a day since the beginning of July.
Crude shipments so far this year are about 40,000 barrels a day below the average for the whole of 2023.
One cargo of Kazakhstan’s KEBCO crude was loaded at Novorossiysk during the week.
Russia terminated its export targets at the end of May, opting instead to restrict production, in line with its partners in the OPEC+ oil producers’ group. The country’s output target is set at 8.978 million barrels a day until the end of September, after which it is scheduled to rise at a rate of 39,000 barrels a day each month until September 2025, as long as market conditions allow. Producers are seen as likely to go ahead with the October increase as planned.
Still, Moscow has pledged to make deeper output cuts in October and November this year, then between March and September of 2025, to compensate for pumping above its OPEC+ quota earlier this year.
Flows by Destination
-
Asia
Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, fell to 2.96 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Sept. 1. That’s about 9% below the average level seen in April.
About 1.19 million barrels a day of crude was loaded onto tankers heading to China. The Asian nation’s seaborne imports are boosted by about 800,000 barrels a day of crude delivered from Russia by pipeline, either directly, or via Kazakhstan.
Flows on ships signaling destinations in India averaged 1.66 million barrels a day, down from a revised 1.78 million for the period to Aug. 25.
Both the Chinese and Indian figures are likely to rise as the discharge ports become clear for vessels that are not currently showing final destinations.
The equivalent of about 30,000 barrels a day was on vessels signaling Port Said or Suez in Egypt. Those voyages typically end at ports in India or China and show up as “Unknown Asia” until a final destination becomes apparent.
The “Other Unknown” volumes, running at about 50,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Sept. 1, are those on tankers showing no clear destination. Most originate from Russia’s western ports and go on to transit the Suez Canal, but some could end up in Turkey. Others may be moved from one vessel to another, with the majority of such transfers now taking place in the Mediterranean, most recently off Egypt, or near Sohar in Oman.
Russia’s oil flows continue to be complicated by the Greek navy carrying out exercises in an area that’s become associated with the transfer of Russian crude. These naval drills have now been extended to Sept. 15. As a result, recent cargo switches have moved to the waters off Egypt’s Port Said, where two Suezmax cargoes were transferred to a larger vessel for shipment to Asia via the Cape of Good Hope. In late August another cargo was moved from one vessel to another at the Omani port of Duqm.
-
Europe and Turkey
Russia’s seaborne crude exports to European countries have ceased, with flows to Bulgaria halted at the end of last year. Moscow also lost about 500,000 barrels a day of pipeline exports to Poland and Germany at the start of 2023, when those countries stopped purchases.
Pipeline deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia, which cross Ukraine through the southern leg of the Druzhba pipeline system, have also been disrupted in recent weeks by Kyiv’s ban on crude belonging to Lukoil PJSC crossing its territory. Hungary said refiner Mol Nyrt is discussing a workaround, and the company’s CEO said the country won’t suffer any oil shortages.
Turkey is now the only short-haul market for shipments from Russia’s western ports, with flows in the 28 days to Sept. 1 edging up to about 210,000 barrels a day from the previous week’s 16-month low.
Export Value
The gross value of Russia’s crude exports fell to $1.52 billion in the seven days to Sept. 1, from $1.62 billion in the period to Aug. 25. The lower weekly flows were partly offset by a small increase in prices for Russia’s major crude streams.
Export values at Baltic ports were up week-on-week by about $1.10 a barrel, while shipments from the Black Sea and prices for key Pacific grade ESPO rose by about $1.20 a barrel. Delivered prices in India were also up, rising by about $1 a barrel, all according to numbers from Argus Media.
Four-week average income was down slightly at about $1.54 billion a week. The four-week average peak of $2.17 billion a week was reached in the period to June 19, 2022.
During the first four weeks after the Group of Seven nations’ price cap on Russian crude exports came into effect in early December 2022, the value of seaborne flows fell to a low of $930 million a week, but soon recovered.
