Meat and grains, fruits, vegetables and even sugar. These are the dinner-table goods that are regularly imported back and forth between Mexico and the U.S.
About $26 billion in farm and food goods moved north to the U.S. in 2018, while $19 billion in such items traveled south to Mexico, according to lender CoBank ACB. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 5% tariffs on imports from Mexico starting on June 10, rising to 25% in October if the country doesn’t meet his immigration demands.
“Things will become more costly for the American consumer,” if the tariffs climb to 25%, said Dan Kowalski, vice president of research for CoBank.
In mid-May, the removal of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico lifted hopes for the eventual ratification of a new trade agreement between the three countries.
Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard has said he sees 80% odds for Mexico to negotiate a solution with the U.S. to avoid any new tariffs, optimism echoed by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Still, there’s a lack of certainty for farmers, traders and others in the agricultural sector moving forward, according to CoBank’s Kowalski.
“Hard for the agricultural sector to make medium to long-term plans when they are not sure what the foreign trade policy will be,” Kowalski said.