US DOT February 2022 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

posted by AJOT | Apr 13 2022 at 11:54 AM | International Trade

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, fell 0.2% in February from January to 138.5. This was the first month-over-month decrease since August 2021, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS). The February TSI is 1.7% above pre-pandemic February 2020 (136.2). For-hire freight does not include the operations of fleets owned by retailers or other non-transportation companies referred to as private fleets.

From February 2021 to February 2022 the index rose 4.0 percent compared to a decline of 2.2 percent from February 2020 to February 2021 and a decline of 1.2 percent from February 2019 to February 2020 (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

The level of for-hire freight shipments in February measured by the Freight TSI (138.5) was 2.6% below the all-time high level of 142.2 in August 2019 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.

The January index was revised to 138.8 from 139.9 in last month’s release.

BTS is withholding the scheduled release of the passenger and combined indexes for February. The passenger index for February is a statistical estimate of airline passenger travel and other components based on historical trends up to January 2022. The statistical estimate does not fully account for the rapidly changing impacts of the coronavirus on the historical trend. Air freight for February is also a statistical estimate. Since air freight makes up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled with the air freight estimate included. The January passenger and combined indexes are available on the BTS website.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal movement, which enables month-to-month comparisons.

Analysis

The Freight TSI decreased 0.2% in February from January due to seasonally adjusted decreases in water, pipeline, and trucking while air freight, rail carloads, and rail intermodal grew.

The February decrease contrasted with growth for other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index grew by 1.2% in February, reflecting increases of 1.2% in manufacturing, and 0.1% in mining, while utilities shrank by 2.7%. Housing starts were up 6.8%, and personal income increased by 0.5%.

The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was up 1.0 points to 58.6, indicating accelerating growth in manufacturing.

Although the February Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the January index is now being released. The index decreased 6.5% from December to January following a decrease of 1.2% in December. Seasonally adjusted transit, air passenger and rail passenger travel all declined.

The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 —the first month of the pandemic— for eight months in a row but remains below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020) for the 23rd consecutive month.

Trend

The February freight index decrease was the first month-over-month decrease after five months of growth, for a total increase of 3.1% since August 2021. The February Freight TSI is 10.7% above the pandemic low in April 2020; it has now increased in 14 of the 22 months since that low. The index is 2.6% below its record level of 142.2 set in August 2019 and has increased in 14 of the 30 months since that peak. It is now at its third highest point since that record level.

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in February 2022 (138.5) were 45.8% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (95.0). The February 2022 level was 2.6% below the historic peak reached in August 2019 (142.2) (Table 1A).

Year to date

For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were up 0.9% in February compared to the end of 2021 (Table 3).

Long-term trend

For-hire freight shipments are up 11.0% in the five years from February 2017 and are up 23.8% in the 10 years from February 2012 (Table 5).

Same month of previous year

February 2022 for-hire freight shipments were up 4.0 % from February 2021 (Tables 4, 5).

The TSI has three seasonally-adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the March 2022 index is scheduled for May 11, 2022.

Revisions

Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.

Table 1: Freight Transportation Services Index since August 2021

Percent Change from Previous Month

(Seasonally-Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

	Freight Index	Pct. Change
August	134.3	-0.2
September	135.1	0.6
October	136.2	0.8
November	136.8	0.4
December	137.3	0.4
January	138.8	1.1
February	138.5	-0.2