Vietnam’s economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter amid weakening global demand and U.S.-China trade tensions.

Gross domestic product rose 6.97% in the fourth quarter compared to a year earlier, down from a revised 7.48% in the third quarter, the General Statistics Office said Friday. That compared to the median estimate of 6.9% in a Bloomberg survey of six economists.

For the full year, the economy expanded 7.02%, beating the government’s 6.8% target.

Growth may slow a bit early next year, given the strong readings in 2019, said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore.

“We’re coming from a higher base so it will be difficult” for Vietnam to keep up this pace, he said. “The real questions are around what 2020 will mean for Vietnam if U.S.-China trade relations stabilize.”

Key Insights

  • Exports for December rose 10.1% compared to a year earlier, while imports climbed 11%. For the full year, exports increased 8.1% and imports gained 7%
  • Compared to the third quarter, exports contracted 4.6% in the fourth quarter, dragging down the quarter’s GDP figure, according to the General Statistics Office
  • Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc has asked the central bank to make sure sufficient money and credit are available in the economy, especially from year-end into early 2020
  • “Trade disputes between major economies could undermine export momentum over the short term, while Vietnam’s economy remains susceptible to a further slowdown in the global economy through trade and investment channels,” the World Bank said in its economic report released Dec. 17