Analysis of air cargo rates and tonnage figures this year highlights a contrasting regional ‘sales’experience in 2024 for carriers and their customers, according to analysis by WorldACD. But by September, strong growth in chargeable weight pushed total air cargo sales into positive territory from most regions

New analysis combining air cargo rates and tonnage figures this year highlights a contrasting regional experience in 2024 for carriers and their customers, with overall ‘sales’ declines in Europe and the Americas contrasting with strong 2024 air cargo sales growth in Middle East, South Asia and Asia Pacific. But by September, the strong growth in chargeable weight flown had pushed total air cargo sales into positive territory for most regions, according to analysis by WorldACD Market Data.

WorldACD’s weekly and monthly reports regularly highlight the worldwide and regional changes and trends in air cargo pricing and chargeable weight. It is also relevant to examine the combined result of these weight and rates changes – ‘revenue’ from the perspective of airlines, or ‘charges’ from the perspective of forwarders or shippers. In the absence of any better terminology covering both sides of the buyer-seller relationship, WorldACD will call it ‘air cargo sales’. All figures in this report are in USD.

Based on the more than 2 million monthly transactions covered by WorldACD’s database, while all six of the world’s main air cargo regions recorded year-on-year (YoY) growth in outbound chargeable weight in the first nine months of this year, two regions saw YoY decreases in overall air cargo sales in that period: Europe and North America. For example, despite a +4% increase in chargeable weight flown from North America origins, the -15% YoY decline in average rates from that region led to a -12% fall in overall air cargo sales, for the year to date (YtD) to September. And from Europe, the combined effects are even more striking: despite a +8% increase in chargeable weight, the -22% drop in average rates generated a -16% fall in air cargo sales. And Central & South America (CSA) recorded no change in total air cargo sales, with a +6% rise in tonnages wiped out by a -6% fall in average rates charged for their carriage.

In contrast, Middle East & South Asia (MESA, +62%), Asia Pacific (+23%), and Africa (+9%) origins all recorded significant YoY increases in overall air cargo sales in the first nine months. For MESA origin cargo, that’s due to strongly increasing tonnages flown (+19%) and average pricing (+36%), while for Asia Pacific, the +17% rise in total cargo sales has been almost entirely generated by the +17% YoY growth in chargeable weight flown, with a small (+5%) increase in average rates overall in that period. And for Africa, +9% growth in chargeable weight flown combined with a small (-1%) reduction in average rates to generate a YoY rise in air cargo sales of +9%.

When we take all regions together from January to September, we see that worldwide weight is up +12%, rates are down -2% and air cargo sales are up +10%. In the first half of October, worldwide weight dropped by -3% compared to the second half of September and rates remained stable.

Accelerating sales growth

Average rates from Asia Pacific origins have been up, YoY, for several months, since the second half of April, and by September, the combined effects of higher tonnages (+10%, YoY) and higher pricing (+21%, YoY) generated YoY growth in total sales of +33% from Asia Pacific. And for MESA, YoY tonnage growth of +15% combined with YoY rate increases averaging +58% in September generated growth in total sales of +81%, YoY. Africa-origin cargo in September also saw increases in both weight (+12%) and rates (+3%), generating growth in total sales of around +15%, YoY.

Meanwhile, continuing YoY declines in average pricing from Europe (-5%) origins led to a small further drop in overall air cargo sales in September (-2%), despite ongoing YoY increases (+4%) in chargeable weight flown. But tonnage growth of +4% from North America origins in September offset the -4% YoY fall in average rates to generate a stable level of total air cargo sales.

If you are an airline or forwarder with most of your business originating in MESA or Asia Pacific, your perspective this year has been very different from those in North America. But the latest figures indicate a broader rise in total air cargo sales from most of the world’s main origin regions, due to the continuing strong YoY growth in air cargo demand.

While air cargo rates continue to rise from many different origins, it is worth noting that there has been in shift in the markets generating the highest rates. For example, in September 2022, the rates from Japan to North America were the highest in the industry. A year later, in September 2023, the market from Hong Kong to North America topped the market. In September this year, we see that air cargo shipments from Bangladesh to North America have the highest rates.

General cargo vs special cargo trends

As noted in previous WorldACD monthly Trends reports, the growth of ‘general cargo’ air cargo tonnages has been outpacing that of ‘special cargo’ products this year, and that continued into September, with general cargo growing by an average of +13%, YoY, in the YtD January-September period, compared with +10% for special cargo products. Much of this change from the longer-term trend is due to the exceptionally strong growth since last autumn in cross-border e-commerce traffic – which often flies as general cargo rather than within a special cargo handling category.

At +10%, the growth of special cargo products this year is also strong by historical standards. Among the special cargo product categories there has been extremely strong YoY growth in worldwide shipments of meat (+25%) and vulnerable/high-tech cargo (+22%). Fruit & vegetables traffic grew by +8%, flowers and dangerous goods each grew by +5%, valuables shipments grew by +4%, fish & seafood by +2%, while pharma/temp (temperature-controlled – predominantly pharma – shipments) volumes were flat. Meanwhile, live animal shipments dropped by -6%, and human remains by -7%, YoY.

Globally, the proportion of special cargo products within the total market averaged 35% in the YtD to September. But analysis according to the origin region of the cargo reveals some significant differences in both their ratios and their respective rates of growth. For example, general cargo makes up around 70% of the key Asia Pacific origin market, although the growth of special cargo from Asia Pacific (+21%) is higher this year than for general cargo (+16%), analysis by WorldACD reveals. In contrast, for the MESA origin market – which has been particularly impacted by disruptions to container shipping this year – general cargo growth (+27%) far outpaced the YoY growth of special cargo (+5%) in the YtD to September.

Asia Pacific origin air cargo, which accounts for 30% of special air cargo generated globally, is also responsible for an outsized share (71%) of the worldwide YoY growth in special cargo chargeable weight this year. And within Asia Pacific’s special cargo market, growth from vulnerable/high-tech cargo (+26%, YoY) is responsible for nearly 80% of Asia Pacific’s overall growth this year in special cargo tonnages, in-depth analysis by WorldACD reveals. This means Asia Pacific origin vulnerable/high-tech special cargo alone is responsible for more than half (56%) of the worldwide YoY growth in special cargo tonnages in the first nine months of this year.

Whereas general cargo forms the clear majority of shipments from Asia Pacific (70%), North America (73%), Europe (71%), and MESA (66%), the reverse is true for Africa and CSA, where special cargo – particularly perishables – shipments dominate: 78% for Africa and 74% for CSA. But from both those regions, it is general cargo that has seen the strongest YoY growth this year in chargeable weight: +23% for Africa and +14% for CSA, compared with +6% and +3%, respectively, for special cargo growth, in the first nine months of this year.