Asia rates remain high despite seasonal slowdown
Global air cargo spot prices remain more than +20% up on their levels a year ago, despite their usual seasonal drop in early January, according to the latest figures and analysis by WorldACD Market Data. Relatively high rates from the Asia Pacific and the Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins continued to prop up average prices in the second week of 2025 (week 2, from 6 to 12 January).
Asia Pacific to USA rates drop
Average Asia Pacific spot rates dipped, WoW, by -5% in week 2, to US$3.81 per kilo, down from a peak of $4.75 in week 49, but they stand +27% higher than in week 2 last year. Asia Pacific to USA demand and spot pricing had stayed surprisingly firm in the final two weeks of 2024, ending the year averaging $6.41 per kilo from Asia Pacific – and $6.04 from China to USA, specifically. After Asia Pacific to USA tonnages fell, WoW, by -24% in week 1, they regained +14% in week 2. But spot rates have continued to slide, dipping to $5.39 per kilo in week 2 from Asia Pacific to USA, and sinking to $4.25 from China to USA – although those spot rates are still up on a YoY basis, by +37% and +10%, respectively.
Asia Pacific to Europe tonnage down
Tonnages from Asia Pacific to Europe, which were extremely buoyant throughout much of 2024, including most of the fourth quarter, dropped sharply from mid-December. Indeed, in the first week of 2025 (week 1), chargeable weight was down -40% from the levels recorded in week 49 of 2024. Although they rebounded (+26%) in week 2, tonnages are still almost 25% below those mid-December high levels. Asia Pacific to Europe spot rates have, correspondingly, dropped back from their levels of more than $5 per kilo in mid-December, dipping to around $4.30 in week 52 and week 1, but they rebounded to $4.59 in week 2 – taking them +42% higher compared with their level this time last year. Spot rates to Europe from South Korea ($5.25; +14%, WoW), Hong Kong ($5.20; +1%, WoW), and Japan ($5.05; +18%, WoW) were all above $5 per kilo in week 2, with China to Europe rates rebounding (+13%, WoW) to $4.48 per kilo.
MESA rates still high but falling
Rates from MESA origins, which were highly elevated throughout 2024 due to the disruptions to ocean freight supply chains in that region, have fallen somewhat in the last three months and have continued to slide in 2025. Full-market average rates from MESA in weeks 1 and 2 dropped by a further -4%, compared with the previous 2 weeks (2Wo2W), although they are still up +36%, YoY. Average spot rates from MESA to Europe of $2.60 per kilo in week 2 are down by around -20% compared with their levels in early November (week 45), although they are still up +65%, YoY. Bangladesh to Europe spot rates, which rose above $5 per kilo in September, have fallen consistently, week by week, for the last 10 weeks, from $4.92 per kilo in week 45, to $3.25 in week 2 this year. But that’s still +35% higher, YoY.
Nevertheless, air cargo rates and demand from MESA origins are likely to remain elevated for the time being. Shipping sources such as Lloyd’s List report that the current fragile ceasefire deal in Gaza has not altered the current threat assessment for shipping in the Red Sea, and shipping lines will not be prepared to disrupt global supply chains by re-routing until there is hard evidence the Houthi threat has diminished.
