Autumn festivals cause mid-September dip in tonnages from Asia Pacific

Global air cargo tonnages dipped by around -3% in week 38 (16-22 September), week on week (WoW), with the declines caused mainly by national holidays in China, South Korea, and Chile, according to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data.

The worldwide -3% fall in flown chargeable weight was mainly driven by Asia Pacific origins, from where a -6% WoW decline in tonnages was responsible for almost three quarters (73%) of the overall global decrease. This Asia Pacific drop was mainly due to the seasonal effects of mid-autumn or harvest festival holidays in various parts of East Asia – taking place this year from 16 to 18 September, within week 38.
The majority (80%) of the drop in Asia Pacific tonnages is explained by a temporary dip in volumes from South Korea (-33% WoW, or 50% of the WoW Asia Pacific decline), and China (-6% WoW, or 30% of the WoW Asia Pacific overall decline). Last year, the mid-autumn festival holidays took place in week 39 (28-30 September), thus skewing single-week year-on-year (YoY) air cargo comparisons. Worldwide tonnages in week 38 this year were just +6% higher than in week 38 last year, compared with double-digit percentage YoY increases throughout most of 2024.

A further 12% of the global decrease in tonnages in week 38 this year was caused by a -6% WoW fall in chargeable weight flown from Central & South America (CSA) origins – which is, in turn, almost fully explained by a near -50% drop of tonnages WoW ex-Chile, due to the country’s 18-20 September national holidays, including Independence Day. Analysis by WorldACD, based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data, indicates that if we eliminate or ‘correct for’ the effects of these seasonal events in Asia Pacific and CSA, global air cargo tonnages would actually be flat, WoW, in week 38.

Rates remain high

This interpretation that the tonnage decline in week 38 is a seasonal blip rather than an overall weakening of the market is further supported by the continuing strong, and in some cases increasing, rates trends, mainly driven by Asia Pacific and Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origin regions, thanks to the ongoing e-commerce boom and continued (and increasing) tensions in the Middle East region, respectively.
Average global rates in week 38 were flat, WoW, with increasing rates ex-Africa (+4%), Asia Pacific (+1%) and MESA (+4%), offset by slightly negative rate trends for the other main origin regions, including a -2% drop ex-North America, based on a full-market average of spot and contract rates. Average rates ex-Asia Pacific (US$3.42 per kilo, +22% YoY) and ex-MESA (US$2.94, +62% YoY) are reaching record highs for this year, and are even higher than the fourth-quarter (Q4) peak of 2023, when average rates in December ex-Asia Pacific stood at US$3.33 per kilo.
The current exceptionally high price levels from Asia Pacific and MESA origins are highlighted further when looking at spot rates. For example, average spot rates from MESA rose, WoW, by a further +5% to $3.68 per kilo in week 38, taking them to almost double (+96%) their equivalent levels last year. And spot rates from Asia Pacific edged up by another +1% to $4.13 per kilo, taking them +35% higher, YoY. But the biggest WoW spot rate increase in week 38 was for Africa origin cargo, where average prices rose by +17% to $2.18 per kilo.

Bangladesh challenges continue

Spot rates from MESA origins have been highly elevated for much of this year, bolstered by the disruptions to ocean freight supply chains caused by the attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, but Bangladesh continues to face additional challenges, resulting from ongoing political instability and logistics disruptions.
As a result, spot rates ex-Bangladesh keep on increasing, reaching new highs in week 38 of $7.83 per kilo to the USA (+4%, WoW) – more than three times their levels this time last year (+213%) – and $5.45 per kilo to Europe (WoW +7%, YoY +175%). These further increases make Bangladesh to USA spot rates among the highest of any air cargo market in the world. And continuing disruptions, including to airport cargo security screening capabilities in Dhaka, look set to place further upward pressure on spot rates from Bangladesh.