Rates rebound in lead-up to Lunar New Year

Average global air cargo rates have edged back upwards in the final full week before Lunar New Year, with average full-market worldwide prices gaining +4% in week 4 (20 to 26 January) to US$2.52 per kilo, around +11% higher than this time last year, according to the latest figures and analysis by WorldACD Market Data. Unsurprisingly, rates from Asia Pacific origins led the way with a week-on-week (WoW) increase of +6%, based on the more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.

Tonnages from Asia Pacific origins regained another +2% in week 4, taking them +6% above their levels this time last year, although they remain around -8% below the peak levels reached in week 49. Average spot rates from Asia Pacific rose by around +3%, WoW, to $3.78 per kilo, a year-on-year (YoY) gain of +24% – although YoY comparisons are complicated by the timing of Lunar New Year, which comes relatively early in 2025 on 29 January compared with 10 February in 2024.

Asia Pacific to Europe tonnages rebound

After their normal end-of-year seasonal drop, Asia Pacific to Europe tonnages rebounded strongly for the third consecutive week, regaining a further +10% in week 4 (WoW) and taking volumes back up close to their high levels of mid-December – and around +5% up, YoY. China to Europe tonnages have also rebounded back up close to their levels in mid-December, regaining +11%, WoW, in week 4 and taking them +12% higher, YoY. Spot rates from Asia Pacific to Europe (US$4.32 per kilo), China to Europe (US$4.29), and Hong Kong to Europe (US$5.15) were broadly stable in week 4. Although those figures are well below their peak levels of mid-December, they are similar to their already relatively firm levels in mid-October – and YoY, they are around +30% higher.

The picture from Asia Pacific to the USA is fairly similar, with spot rates edging back upwards (to $5.30 per kilo from Asia Pacific and $4.49 per kilo from China) after declining for several weeks from their very high levels in December – when they peaked at close to $7 per kilo. Compared with last year, Asia Pacific to USA spot rates are up by +28%, whereas China to USA spot rates are now up by just +5% YoY. Demand-wise, after their normal end-of-year seasonal drop, tonnages from Asia Pacific to the USA have rebounded in weeks 2, 3 and 4 to a level that is around +11% higher than in week 4 last year.


Worldwide tonnages stabilize

Total worldwide tonnages were broadly stable in week 4 (+1%, WoW), after regaining +28% and +11% in weeks 2 and 3 following their seasonal end-of-year slump. That’s around -7% below their average weekly level in December, slightly above their average weekly level last October, and similar to the level this time last year. So, after recording YoY growth averaging +11% last year, worldwide air cargo may be set for much more-limited YoY growth rates in 2025, as highlighted by WorldACD at this week’s World Cargo Summit in Ostend.

One market that did record very significant growth rates in week 4 was Central & South America (CSA), which saw outbound tonnages increase, WoW, by +17%. Much of that increase was linked to flower shipments – mostly to North America – ahead of Valentine’s Day on 14 February. Analysis by WorldACD indicates that the patterns this year are very similar to those last year for that market. Overall outbound tonnages from CSA increased by +62% in the first four weeks of 2025, of which more than half (55%) can be attributed to flower shipments – which more than doubled (+114%) during that period, with most (92%) going to North America.


Colombia and Ecuador lead flower exports

Despite the brief dispute this month between Colombia and the USA, Colombian flower exports have continued to make up a big part of that air trade between CSA and North America in the first four weeks of this year: analysis by WorldACD indicates that 98% of the flower exports from CSA to North America originate in Colombia (61%) and Ecuador (37%). Indeed, 77% of all Colombian air exports in this period have been flower exports and 63% of all Ecuador air exports – underlining the importance of access to the North America market for Colombia (and Ecuador).