China-USA tonnages remain depressed after Golden Week

Worldwide and Asia Pacific air cargo tonnages have only partially recovered from the effects of China’s Golden Week holiday in early October, according to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data, with traffic from China to the USA showing little sign of rebounding at all in the first week since the major Chinese holiday.

Tonnages to the USA from China in week 41 (7 to 13 October) increased by just +1%, week on week (WoW), after dropping by -20% in week 40. In contrast, last year, China to USA tonnages recovered in week 41 to a level close to pre-Golden Week levels. Meanwhile, tonnages to the USA from Asia Pacific as a whole remained flat in week 41 this year after declining in week 40 by -10%, figures driven mainly by the China-USA market.

Region-by-region analysis indicates that after declining WoW by -10% in week 40, chargeable weight flown from Asia Pacific rose by +6% (WoW) in week 41, taking tonnages +12% above their levels this time last year. Africa recorded a +4% WoW increase, with Europe and Middle East & South Asia (MESA) recording +1% WoW increases, while North America outbound tonnages slipped by -1% and Central & South America (CSA) volumes dropped by -3%, WoW. On a worldwide basis, tonnages rose by +2%, taking them +8% above last year’s levels.

On the pricing side, average worldwide rates – a full-market mix of spot rates and contract rates – held steady at $2.58 per kilo, with most notable 2Wo2W increases from CSA (+2%) and Europe (+2%) and a -1% drop from North America origins, taking average worldwide rates +12% above last year’s levels. Worldwide spot rates overall were also relatively stable in week 41, rising by +1% (2Wo2W) to $2.85 per kilo, taking them +20% above last year’s levels.
China-LAX effect
Although Asia Pacific to USA total air cargo tonnages in week 41 were broadly similar to their levels this time last year, China-USA tonnages were significantly down (-19%), year on year (YoY). That -19% decline is the biggest YoY percentage drop this year for the China-USA market, although it is part of a wider pattern of decline in China-USA tonnages in the second half of this year. That decline appears to have been triggered by increased Customs checks since July on inbound USA air cargo traffic from China, especially at Los Angeles (LAX). Indeed, China to LAX tonnages in week 41 were down by -39%, YoY, also impacted by China's Golden Week holiday. When looking at the full month of September as a reference, China-USA tonnages were down by -8%, YoY, while China-LAX tonnages fell -19%, YoY.

However, spot rates did bounce back from China to the USA in week 41, rising WoW by +8% to US $5.28 per kilo, after declining by -7% the previous week, taking them +11% above last year’s levels. And from Asia Pacific to the USA, spot rates partially bounced back with a +3% WoW rise to $6.11 per kilo, after slipping -7% the previous week, taking Asia Pacific-USA spot rates +45% above their equivalent levels last year.

China-Europe tonnages also only partially rebounded in week 41. After falling by -17% in week 40, they regained +5% in week 41, whereas last year they had more or less completely recovered in the equivalent week after the declines during Golden Week. However, tonnages to Europe from Hong Kong, where e-commerce makes up a significant proportion of traffic, have remained broadly stable throughout the last five weeks, at highly elevated levels. Indeed, tonnages from Hong Kong to Europe in week 41 were up, YoY, by +26%.