Rates rise further in last full week of October

Average worldwide air cargo spot rates rose by a further +5% in the last full week of October, thanks to week-on-week (WoW) increases in spot prices from Asia Pacific (+3%), Europe (+7%), and Central & South America (CSA, +8%), while global tonnages remained broadly flat, WoW, at around +4% above last year’s levels, according to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data.

After remaining broadly stable for the previous three weeks, which included China’s Golden Week holiday and a two-week subsequent recovery period, average global spot rates rose to US$2.93 per kilo in week 43 (21-27 October), with the full-market average – based on a combination of spot and contract rates – rising +2% to $2.67. Those increases take spot rates +22% above their equivalent levels this time last year, with spot prices from Asia Pacific up +27%, year on year (YoY), and those from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins up +78%, YoY.

October traffic up +7%, YoY

Preliminary figures for the full month of October indicate that tonnages were up by around +7% compared with last October, based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. While that remains a significant YoY increase, it’s below the double-digit YoY percentage rises we’ve become accustomed to for much of this year – although the comparison month, last October, was a relatively strong one as e-commerce volumes, in particular, surged towards the end of last year.

Examining some individual lanes and markets in recent weeks, particularly from Asia Pacific and MESA origins, reveals that although tonnages from Asia Pacific origins to Europe were up slightly (+1%, WoW) in week 43, chargeable weight flown from China to Europe actually declined by -4%, WoW. That takes China to Europe tonnages down to the levels recorded in week 43 last year, and marks a significant contrast to the double-digit YoY percentage growth figures recorded for most of this year – although China to Europe volumes had already begun to surge this time last year.

Meanwhile, tonnages in week 43 from Hong Kong to Europe are around +30% up compared with their levels in early August, and up +29%, YoY, although they dipped slightly (-1%), WoW, in week 43. But several other significant Asia Pacific markets recorded strong WoW tonnage growth to Europe in the last two weeks, notably Taiwan (+32%) and Thailand (+30%). Spot rates from Hong Kong to Europe rose by a further +3% in week 43 to US$5.33 per kilo in week 43, their highest level this year, and a +18% increase compared with last year.

On the transpacific market, Asia Pacific to USA tonnages as a whole had recovered in week 43 to their levels prior to China’s Golden week in week 40, although China to USA tonnages have so far failed to recover to pre-Golden Week levels, currently wallowing around -20% below their average levels in September and down by a similar amount (-19%) compared with the equivalent week last year. Spot rates from Asia Pacific to the USA averaging $6.14 per kilo in week 43, were +39% up compared with last year, while China to USA spot rates of $5.13 are +14% higher, YoY.

Two-week analysis

Expanding the analysis period to two weeks, worldwide average (full-market) rates were up +3% for weeks 42 and 43, compared with the previous two weeks (a 2Wo2W comparison), and were +11% higher than the equivalent two weeks last year. The biggest 2Wo2W shifts included +6% increases from Europe to North America and from CSA to Europe, while in the opposite direction Europe to CSA tonnages rose +7%. And rates from Asia Pacific to Europe and North America were up by +3% and +2%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the combined tonnages for weeks 42 and 43 were up +2% compared with those of weeks 40 and 41, and +5% higher than last year. Lanes recording significant changes, on a 2Wo2W basis, included a -9% decrease in tonnages from MESA to Europe, a +9% increase in Asia Pacific to North America chargeable weight, and a +11% rise in North America origin traffic to CSA. Tonnages from MESA origins, which have been inflated for much of this year by the disruptions to container shipping services in the Red Sea, registered the biggest 2Wo2W decline (-4%) of any of the regions, while Asia Pacific saw the biggest rises (+4%, 2Wo2W), as that market continued to rebound from China’s Golden Week.