b'grower from Clinton, Kentucky, wrote afterthat cannot be sourced somewhere else in the talks broke down, We are glad that talksthe world. What is produced in Nebraska between these two countries will continueand Illinois, for examples, Brazil, Australia, without the tariff hike. its still hard to see aArgentina,CanadaandMexicoaremore tangible end in sight. than eager to supply. Its worth noting that soybeans arent just When we cannot deliver, affordably and another crop when it comes to Chinait isdependably, to our customers in Asia, Eu-the agricultural export. In a little over tworope and around the world, those customers decades the value of the U.S. soybean haswill find alternative sources. risen from a modest $414 million in 1996 to $14 billion in 2017. China imported over Whenourforeigncustomersgoelse-30% of U.S. production in 2017, amount- where, and establish new sources and new ing to around 60% of total U.S exports. Bothsupply chains, it is incredibly difficult to get Chinese importers and American exportersthose customers back.prior to the current dustupexpected the U.S. to be the main supplier to the PRC. ButBean Counter: The Soybean thepossibilityoftheU.S.-ChinasoybeanDilemma trade being permanently damaged stands to alter the shipments of agricultural commod- Lemms comments point out the real dan-ities for the foreseeable future.ger of an extended trade disputeforeign [chart 1.11-1] customers (i.e. China) going elsewhere. In WhenChinaandtheU.S.agreedtositthe case of soybeans, Brazil and Argentina down for trade talks, Beijing said it wouldare rivals to the U.S. for the China market. buyfivemillionsoybeansasagoodwillAnd China itself has the ability to produce gesture. This kicked off a spate of buying inmoresoybeanswithcropconversion.Al-late January into early February. Industry es- thoughcropconversion,sayfromwheat, Maximizing yields and profitability are priorities, but how we approach them has changed as the world around us changes.[chart 1.11-2] itself, invites economic volatility by creating timates believe the tally will eventually hitshortages in another sector.ten million tonsalthough with the trade talks slowly grinding along the possibility ofIt can be easily argued Chinas readiness Beijing suddenly closing the tap is very real. to buy U.S. soybeans in January-February in advance of the talks as matter of good AtaFebruary26thmeetingbeforethefaithislessaboutgoodfaiththandire U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Sci- need. As much as the tariffs have hit the U.S. ence and Transportation, Donna Lemm, anheartland, they have hit Chinas gold coast Advisory Board Member for the Agricultureof cities like Shanghai, Guangdong and Xia-Transportation Coalition (AgTC) and Execu- men just as hardits tough to make soy tive VP,IMCCompanies,Inc.,notedhowsauce without soybeans.deep and long-term the damage from tariffs could be, It is essential to emphasize theBecause China imports a great deal less daily threat of global competitive sourcingfrom the U.S. than vice versa, the impacts confrontingallyouragricultureandforestof the tariffs have been slower to percolate products constituents:through the economy. Nonetheless, the U.S. tariffs are sowing havoc with the machineryThere is nothing that we produce in ag- of the Factory-to-the-World export orient-riculture and forest products in this country,ed economy. 24 THE UNCONTAINED www.theuncontained.com'