b'2American Journal of Transportation ajot.comIron giant paints rosy 2020 demand picture breakbulk Miner BHP Group hangs its hat on Chinas reopening quarterlyBy Peter Buxbaum, AJOTPricesforironoreandtobecountingonChinas steelhavebothheldfairlyresurgencetofuelcontinued steady for the last couple ofdemand for iron ore. A recent weeks, both having recov- company report noted that eredfroman Aprildip.industrialactivityin This situation stands inChinaisshowingsigns contrasttothelonger- of early recovery, aided term trend. In mid-May,by supportive credit and ironpricesstoodatfiscal policy. BHP sees slightlyabovetheirsteelproductionoutside Februarylevels,Chinanarrowingby whilesteelhaddouble digits in 2020 fallenoff12.5%,as long as steelmak-continuing a longer pattern inersinEurope,theAmericas, whichsteelproducershaveIndia,andJapanremainshut been squeezed while the bigdown. But that situation may iron ore miners have profited. also be changing.Earlier this year, officialsWhile demand in China at BHP Group, one of four big(ROSYcontinued on iron ore extractors, celebratedpage 4)theircompanys2019suc-cess,butcautionedthatthe spreadofCOVID-19could depress iron ore demand pro-jections for 2020 if the fall- The Port of out extended beyond March. HereweareinMay,with little if any abatement in thePascagouladiseases spread, yet the same company recently announced ithadproduced3%more ironoreintheninemonths ending March 31, 2020, and 7% more in the most recent quarter.Incontrasttoother publicly-traded companies in theseuncertaintimes,many ofwhichhavepulledback their guidance for 2020 and beyond,BHPhasheldfirm withitsexpectationthatits 2020 iron ore production will hold steady with last years.MexicoWhat accounts for BHPsCaribbeanrosy outlook? Its been widely reportedoflatethatChina ismakingstridestowardsCentral Americareopeningitseconomy,and particularlyindustrialpro-duction, including steel.The NewYorkTimesrecently reportedthatChinesefac-toriesarehummingagain, andeventheairpollution iscomingback.Industrial plants in the United States are also planning to reopen. South AmericaC hinasD omestiCP roDuCtionS&P Global Platts recently reportedthatChinesedomes-tic steel production, which had fallen to under 190 million tons per annum (Mtpa) in February 2020,hassincerecoveredto around 202 Mtpa. Thats still lower than the December 2019 figure of 211 Mtpa, but it shows improvement.Productionin China of pig iron, an interme-diate product made by smelt-ingironore,isup1.7%this yearoverlast.Portoutflows, accordingtothereport,were 10% higher year-on-year fromPortofPascagoula.comMarchthroughmid-April. All this explains why iron ore priceshavebeenresilienttoMain Office - 228-762-4041 Miami Office - 305-254-3117the COVID-19 shock so far.BHPGroupappears'