b'may 25 - june 21, 2020breakbUlk qUarTerly 7(STAGNATEcontinuedUS aluminum Imports by Port in MT US Imports of aluminum in MTfrom page 6)reluctant to revert due to theU.S. Port Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Country of Origin Q1 2020 Q1 2019initial investment costs. It isBaltimore, MD94,813.25 199,204.96Canada94,284.86 32,966.52 therefore our expectation thatNew Orleans, LA79,355.03 132,629.28United Kingdom49,113.76 221,933.97 marketshareisunlikelyto revert back to MPV/HL ves- Brownsville, TX22,282.16 24,238.74Argentina43,458.89 50,633.25 selsbutthepaceoflossofPort Manatee, FL18,885.60 22,140.39South Africa21,738.02 11,063.74 that share will be slower.Philadelphia, PA14,880.08 5,742.31Norway20,752.00 16,529.52 As a result, Drewry expectsHouston, TX14,797.65 19,997.18Spain13,480.78 0.29 MPV/HL cargo demand growth to stagnate in the two years toGalveston, TX13,491.62 0.12Netherlands12,285.97 237.97 2021, growing at an averagePort Arthur, TX12,728.19 16,482.94India10,675.31 1.45 annual rate of just 0.3%. Mobile, AL11,867.26 12,010.62Brazil10,266.99 3,039.47 h igh - Case sCenario Los Angeles, CA10,305.46 1,789.60Qatar6,432.78 - Thebest-casescenarioOTHERS9,842.93 9,359.99Others20,759.87 107,189.95 has, in our opinion, the leastTotal303,249.23 443,596.13Total303,249.23 443,596.13 likelihood of becoming real-ity. Howeverfor the sake ofSource-Descartes-Datamyne Source: Descartes-Datamynecompletenessit proposes a modest but positive GDP(DISTRESSEDcontinuednewNorthAmericantradeacting as Chinas North Amer- Mexicosprimaryandsemi-growth forecast for 2020. Itfrom page 5) deal,theU.S.,Canadaandican backyard to dispose offinished imports. expectscontainerdemandfindingthattheyactuallyMexico agreed to stop diver- the products of its overcapac- ButthenewU.S.rules tobeweakerin2020butoriginated in China.sion of shipments from otherity.TheInstitutoMexicanowill take months to get on the neverthelesstoshowposi- In the current brouhaha,nations to dodge tariffs.delAluminiohassaiditisbooks, much less enforce, too tivegrowthcomparedtoits thought that Chinese alu- InDecember,CanadashelpingtheU.S.stopunfairlate to provide immediate help 2019.Meanwhile,bulkminumisenteringtheU.S.aluminumassociationcom- trade practices, and that ChinatoaU.S.industrysuffering demandishardlyexpectedthroughMexico.UndertheplainedthatMexicowasaccounts for less than 1% offrom a pandemic depression.toslowoverthesummer monthsandwillshow steady growth over the year. This low probability, high demandscenariosuggestswww.spliethoff.com | [email protected]/HL market share is unlikely to beTHE FIRST AND ONLY YEAR-ROUND LINER SERVICE regained,theencroachment bythecompetingsectorsisBETWEEN EUROPE AND THE GREAT LAKESsignificantly reduced so that itdoesnotworsenoverthe period.ThisleadstomoreNOT LOCKED DOWN ! ANTWERPbuoyantdemandgrowthfor the MPV sector over the fore-cast period.L ow - Case sCenarioForthelow-casesce-nario, which we have to sayCLEVELANDhasanincreasinglikelihood of reality, we have anticipated aglobaleconomicreces-sionover2020.Largescale unemploymentandbusiness casualtiesleadtoincreas-ing uncertainty across global marketsandaprolonged downturninfreightratesin the dry cargo sector. WE ARE FortheMPV/HLseg- STRONGment this is compounded by weak oil prices, which remain at below $30/bbl for the fore-seeablefuture.Demandfor this sector is further squeezed bythecontainerandbulk carriersandmarketshare drops further. This leads to a negative demand outlook for MPV/HL vessels.(EXPLOREScontinued from page 6)ethlene production capacity.Dowhasaccountedfor more than 75% of its rail busi-nesssrevenue,whichhad acompoundannualgrowth rate of about 7% over the last three years, the person said. The company has offered to sign a 25-year agreement withQuick transit time to Cleveland in about 15 days Line-supplied containers, project, heavy lift, steel, potential suitors. Other exist- Through bills of lading forest products and bulking contracts have roughly 12 Onward connections using Spliethoffs Calling various Great Lakes ports, incl. Valleyfield years remaining, on average. European and Americas logistics network and Rameys BendThecompany,ledby ChiefExecutiveOfficer James Fitterling, has seen its stock tumble 42% this year, comparedwitha12%drop for the S&P 500 Index.'