b'12American Journal of Transportation ajot.comAuto supply chain under stressA confluence of supply chain snags have createdAUTO LOGISTICS 2021shortages in vehicle inventory, but with EVs on the way, what is the future of the auto supply chain?By Matt Miller, AJOTBy now, the new vehicleshould begin to clear. Many crunch is getting old. Searchsupply-and-demandimbal-online for a new Ford Tran- ances should right themselves sit van for sale in sprawlingwithin a year or so, industry Los Angeles, the city of cars,analysts believe. forexample,andyoullgetBut other issues will have ameaslysixchoices.Theymuch longer lasting impact on comewiththisadvisory:thecomplexbusinessstruc-Due to nationwide inventoryture of carmakers globally. shortages, we were unable toIt will absolutely result findmorematcheswithininstructuralchanges,said 100 miles. Hearsch. The reasons for this months- Already,automakersare long scarcity are well known:being forced to alter parts of An acute semiconductor short- theirmuch-vauntedsupply ageisthemosthigh-profilechainandthemethodsthey reason.Butalackofsemi- developed to keep it humming, conductorsiscompoundedmanyinvolvingjust-in-time by other global supply chaininventory.Thatchangewill and logistics crises, affecting(STRESScontinued on everything from steel to plas- page 13)ticresintoglass.Container shipsbobofftheCalifor-niacoast,waitingforwharf space. A critical chip testing and packaging plant in Malay-sia is shut down because of COVID-19.Poweroutages hobble Chinese steel mills. A fire in a semiconductor plant in Japan destroys machinery and renders cleanroom opera-tions useless.Theresult:Vehiclefac-toriesinNorthAmerica andJapanalikeannounced weeks-longfactoryclosures and months-long slashing of production targets. The con-sultancyfirmAlixPartners estimatedinSeptemberthat lostrevenueforcarmakers globallywouldreach$210 billionthisyear,withlost productiontotaling7.7mil-lion units. Thats a dramatic increase from just May, when AlixPartnersforecastlosses at $110 billion and 3.9 mil-lion units.The state were in now is one where theres no reserve capacity for almost anything, saidDanHearsch,anAlix-Partnersmanagingdirector who specializes in automotive supply chains. So, every little blipthatpreviouslywould havebeenalmostunnotice-able is now just reverberating through the system.AsElonMusk,Tesla MotorsCEO,saidinan earnings call earlier this year: Things will move as fast as the slowest part of the entire supply chain.Elon Musk, Tesla Motors CEOs truCturalC hanges Ina utos upplyC haInSome of these factors are temporary. Logistics bottle necks'