b'12TOP NORTH AMERICAN EXPORTERS & IMPORTERS ajot.comNational Retail Federation optimistic on retail sales growth but fear supply chain disruptions National Retail Federation (NRF) thinks consumer spending will grow in 2024 but lag behind GDP growth. While disruptions like the Red Sea attacks will cause ripples felt throughout the supply chain all the way into the consumers wallets. By Chris Barnett, AJOTAfter surprisingly strongheadingintotheholidayview. Retail did so well last holidaysaleslastyear,season, but the labor markets,year based on the strength of continuedgrowthin2024while unlikely to unravel, dothe consumer who continued remainslikely,drivenbylooklikelytocool,whichto be out shopping, especially ahealthyconsumer.How- wouldimpactconsumerduringtheholidayseason, ever, this may be challengedexpectationsand,inturn,hetoldtheAmericanJour-byeconomicandpoliticalaffect spending. nalofTransportationinan uncertainties,contendstheWhile the NRFs officialexclusive interview. But they NationalRetailFederation,annualeconomicforecastwerenotfrivolousintheir (NRF),thenationslargestwill not be released until laterpurchases, Gold said. They retail trade association. inMarch,JonathanGold,pulled back and were focused Thehealthofretail- vicepresidentofsupplyonnecessities,spendingon ing,whichhasa$3.9tril- chainandeconomicpolicy,(OPTIMISTICcontinued lionimpactonthenationsistakingabroader,globalon page 14)GDP and supports 52 million Americans, is largely depen-dent on the labor market and the Federal Reserves actions oninterestrateswhich impactconsumerspending,On Track with RailtheNRFsChiefEconomist JackKleinhenzsaidearlier this month.t heuS e COnOmy anD the The Port of Long Beach is investing $1.5 billion in rail infrastructuremore tracks, C OnSumer longertrainsandgreenerlocomotives.Morecargomovingfastertomarket Americanhouseholds arefeelingbetteraboutthemore efficiently as we work to become the worlds first zero-emissions port.economyastheyareexpe-riencinglowerinflation,he said.Lowerpriceswerea keyfactorinthesuccessful 2023holidayseason.How-ever,consumerspendingis increasinglydependenton further improvement in infla-tionandthecombination of jobsandwagegrowth,the NRF economist asserted.Federal Reserve officials havetoughpolicychoices ahead as they decide on what todoandwhen,Kleinhenz said. There is still a risk that keeping rates too high could curbtheeconomysmomen-tum more than necessary. Yet if they lower rates too soon, it could allow the economy to reinflate and make it harder to containinflationpressures, he added.NRFs Chief Economist Jack KleinhenzI remain of the view that consumer spending continues to grow, but at a rate slightly belowoverallGDPgrowth, Kleinhenzpredicted.Con-sumers were in decent shape'