b'12American Journal ofTransportation ajot.comChinas economy and steel sector face headwindsPiles of debt, shrinking real estate and construction sectors spell trouble for production and demand.By Peter Buxbaum, AJOTLastyear,theChinesetoglobaltrendsthathave governmentsabruptendtoinflictedeconomicwoes itszero-COVIDpolicywaselsewhere, including supply-welcomedasaharbingerofchaincongestionandinfla-a return to economic growth.tion.Thecountryalsohas And,infact,thereopeningitsuniquesetofdomestic of the Chinese economy didchallenges,includingafall-stimulate a growth spurt. ing population, mountains of Butthatdidntlastlong.debt, an ailing housing sector, Chinas growth has since stalled,and consumers who are reluc-(L to R) US Trade Rep. Katherine Tai, Phil BellPresident of the Steel Manufacturers Assn. in Washington DC and the thinking among sometant to spend. economistsisthatChinasAgovernmenteconomic Infrastructure projects and decarbonizationzero-COVIDpolicyhasdonestimulus package encouraging long-term damage to the coun- consumer spending has been take center stage at Global Steel Dynamicstrysgrowthprospects. Thoseanticipated for some time but prospects are reflected in Chi- hasyettomaterializemean-Forum in New Yorknassteelindustryproductioningfully. Instead, the govern-and demand numbersand inmentcontinuestorelyon By Manik Mehta, AJOT the prospects for their recovery. stimulus in the form of invest-The post-Covid recoverymentswhich may not do the Twoissuesthatwerewidelydiscussedreach a peak driven by several determinants,appears to have run its coursetrick. Ultimately, its the very attherecentGlobalSteelDynamicsForumincluding the huge infrastructure allocations,and an economic double dipnatureofChinaseconomic (GSDF),organizedbytheWorldSteeldemand from cleaning up the energy grid, aisnearlyconfirmed,wroteand political systems that may Dynamicsandthe AssociationforIronandsurgeinautomotivemanufacturing,furtheranalysts at Nomura in a recentprevent a significant recovery Steel Technology in New York, were the Bidendecline in imports . all the factors will propreport. ThatJapaneseinvest- going forward.administrationsupgradingoftheinfrastruc- up the American industry, as Dirk Schulz, amentbankforecasts4.2% ture and its impact on steel industrys outlook,visiting German steel analyst put it.growth for China in 2024 andp ost -CoVid r ise , f alland secondly the theme of decarbonization inU.S. Congressman Frank J. Mrvan, viceseessignificantdownsideandr ise ?the process of steel production.chair of the Congressional Steel Caucus, tookrisks to that projection. Thepost-COVIDspike The speakers at the forum were also gener- stock of the steel industrys current situation,Ofcourse,onepolicyin Chinas economic numbers ally bullish about the industry, keeping in minddwelling on the future of the steel industry,cannottakealltheblame.(HEADWINDScontinued that the North American market was about to(STAGEcontinued on page 14) Chinaseconomyissubjecton page 19)'