b'JULY 24 - AUGUST 20, 2023GREAT LAKES & ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY PORTS 19(HEADWINDScontinued fromsame prospects are likely for this yearTop 10 Steel-Producing Countriespage 12) and next. is reflected in its levels of steel pro- % Change% Change duction.InMarch,Chinaproducedr eVitaliZing thee Conomy May 2023 (Mt) May 23/22 Jan-May 2023 (Mt) Jan-May 23/2295.7metrictonsofcrudesteel,upBeijing has taken some steps to 6.9% from March 2022, according torevitalizeeconomicgrowth.SmallChina 90.1 -7.3 444.6 1.6the WorldSteel Association(World- businessesreceivedtaxbreaksandIndia 11.2 4.1 56.4 5.7steel), representing the end of Chinasinterest rates on bank deposits wereJapan 7.6 -5.2 36.5 -5.3post-COVID growth surge. In April,reducedtoencourageconsumersto Chinassteelproductionwasdownspend more and save less.United States 6.9 -2.3 33.1 -3.41.5%yearoveryearandinMay,itBut these measures have provenRussia 6.8* 8.8 32.1 1.9was down 7.3%.ineffective as consumers continue to Worldsteelsmostrecentshort- hoardcashandprivateinvestmentsSouth Korea 5.8 -0.1 28.1 -0.4range outlook shows that global steeldecline. This has given rise to fearsGermany 3.2 0.2 15.6 -4.7demand will rebound by 2.3% and willof a balance-sheet recession, driven grow 1.7% in 2024, but China is notby high levels of private-sector debtBrazil 2.8 -5.5 13.4 -8.1part of the picture. In 2024, demandratherthanfluctuationsinthebusi- Turkey 2.9 -10.4 13.0 -19.1growthisdrivenbyregionsoutsidenesscycle,accordingtoareportIran 3.3 8.8 13.0 2.2China, said Mximo Vedoya, CEO offrom BNY Mellon. During a balance-Ternium, and chair of the Worldsteelsheetrecessiondebtrepayment* Estimated. Ranking of top 10 producing countries is based on year-to-date aggregateeconomics committee. After decliningisprioritizedabovespendingandSource: Worldsteelby3.5%in2022,Chinastotalsteelinvestment, which ultimately leads to demand is expected to grow by 2.0% inslower growth. new debt needed to generate each unitChinashouseholdspendingrepre-2023 and to stay flat in 2024, he added. The large housing and constructionof incremental growth. sents38%ofGDP,wellbelowthe Chinasrealestateandhousingsectors remain at the heart of the prob- Chineseofficialshavespokenglobal average of 68%. sectorswhichrepresent25%ofthelem. Many developers remain exces- aboutexportingtheirwayoutofBut,accordingtoareportpub-countrysGDPcontinuetoexperi- sively leveraged and have businessestrouble, but here, too, they face chal- lishedbytheCouncilonForeign ence negative momentum, accountingbasedonoutdatedgrowthmodels,lenges.ExportshavebeenflatthisRelations, Sensible though it is, con-for the sluggish steel demand. In 2022,said the BNY Mellon report. Givenyear and declined in Mayby 18.2%sumption-led growth in Xis China is the floor space of new projects droppedthese factors, it is perhaps unsurprisingto the United Statesnotable becausedoomed to fail.by 39.4% and investments in real estatethat sentiment in the real estate sectorBeijing has allowed the renminbi toOnereasonisthatitwillmeet declined by 10%, the first such declineis at the lowest level in decades. decline by 7% against the dollar thiswithpushbackfromconstituencies in 25 years. These acute declines willLocalgovernmentsandcorpo- year,whichshouldhavemadeChi- thatPresidentXiJinpingmustsat-put pressure on construction activitiesrationsinChinahaveaccumulatednese exports more competitive.isfy,includingstate-ownedenter-in 2023 and 2024, said Vedoya. largevolumesofdebt,oftencollat- prises,localgovernments,andthe Infrastructure investments pickederalized by real estate and land thatf irsty ear of12 nationalsecuritybureaucracy.Chi-up last year thanks to government sup- have experienced price declines. TheLate last year, the Chinese gov- nese consumers, for their part, will port, but this was largely focused onhigh level of debt within the economyernmentannounceda12-yearplanbe reluctant to embrace it, said the less steel-intensive areas such as waterislikelytobecomeaheadwindforto expand household consumption toreport, knowing that the leader will supply systems, telecommunications,growth in the years ahead, said thedrivetheeconomy,whichwasmet(HEADWINDScontinued on andlogistics,said Vedoya,andthereport, with ever greater amounts ofwithpraisefromsomeeconomists.page 24)EUROPE - GREAT LAKES SERVICELiner servicebetween Europeand the Great Lakes1Container service between Antwerp and Valleyfield, Cleveland and Duluth CONTAINERS Liner owned equipment door-to-door serviceBULK CARGOMore info:www.spliethoff.com orPROJECT [email protected]'