b'36American Journal ofTransportation ajot.com(BUMPScontinued fromlast year.strategies.Forexample,GMductionstrategycalledTPSone industry expert noted, the page 34) reportedly delivered the autosor Toyota Production System.chip shortage even caught up Intherevisedautopro- C hiPs Andd iPs tothedealerswithoutsomeA key feature of the strategywith Toyota. And at that stage, ductionestimatesforApril,Withdemandsostrongchipsinstalled.Theideawas the multiple sourcing oftheautomakerhadtomake S&P Global Mobility movedandretailpricesforautosbeingthatthedealerscouldpartslikemicrochipstochoices on which vehicles to autoproductiondownwardhigh,whyistheprojectedlaterhavetheconsumerscreatesupplychainredun- manufacture and which not to, forEurope(-2.9%),Chinaproductionanddeliveryofbringthevehiclesbackanddancy. TPS uses three differ- according to chip availability.(-1.6%),NorthAmericaautosnowfalling?Thegetthechipsinstalledataent sources with the primary (0.1%)andtherestofthemicrochipshortageisonelatertimefornonessentialsupplier making up two-thirdss uPPlyC hAinw hiPlAshworld(-0.1%)foraglobalobvious answer. Shifts at autoitemslikeheatedsteeringthe total to ensure economiesThe ongoing COVID lock-total of (-1.1%).plants around the world havewheels or charging pads. of scale. Additionally, ToyotadownsinSouthChinaand Interestingly, North Amer- been cut because of a lack ofEveryOEM(Originalimplementedaprogramofothersupplychaindisrup-icawastheonlyregiontochips. AtypicalexampleofEquipmentManufacturer)hassmall lot with high frequencytions, like the chip shortage, show any upward movement.the impact of the chip short- hadtodeviseastrategytodeliverytokeeptheproduc- havecontributedtoawhip-AccordingtoS&PMobil- agewasinaMarchreportensure the supply chain resil- tionlinesflowing.Tomakelasheffectonautodeliver-ity,productioninQ1wasfromVolvo.TheSwedishience during periods of stress.this demanding system func- ies.Aswithcontainerships, actually higher than the 3.55carmaker in late March can- And Toyotas approach to thetion,Toyotadevelopedathere is a shortage of capacity million unit forecast but Q2celled shifts at its Torslandasupply chain has been widelywell-tunedsystemfortrack- andportdelaysforRO/RO was revised down on supplyplantnearGothenburg.Thetoutedasthego-tomodelinginventorythroughoutthevessels.Thiscoupledwith chain concerns and issues atplantproducesXC90andforautomakers.Eventslikesupplychain.Thesystemsporadicsurgesindemand the border crossing betweenXC60 SUVs and the V90 sta- the2011monsoonfloodsinenabled Toyota to predict partforRO/ROcapacityhave Texas and Mexico.tionwagon.BecauseoftheMalaysia and Thailand, alongshortagesandgetaheadofwhiplashedtheautosupply JeffSchuster,president,shortage of microchips criti- with the Japans Great Tohokusourcing problems. chain. To handle the surging Americasoperationsandcal to the production of theseEarthquake and tsunami crip- When the microchip short- demand,itisrumoredthat globalvehicleforecastsformodels,Volvosuspendedpled Japans auto manufactur- age hit, Toyota was able to shiftsome Asian carriers are look-LMCAutomotive,wroteinshiftstobuildupenoughing and prompted re-think ofproductionandinitiallywasingintodeliveringstraight theJDPowerU.S.Auto- chipinventorytorestartthetheautosupplychain.Fromless impacted by the shortageto the West Coast and railing motiveForecastforMarchassemblylines.Otherauto- the crucible of the 2011 eventsthanotherautomakers.Still,(BUMPScontinued on 2022,RiskintheoutlookmakershaveadoptedotherToyota developed a new pro- even with the best planning, aspage 40)fortheglobaleconomyand vehiclesaleshasincreased significantly since last month [February].Thecompound of extending existing disrup-tionsfromsupplyshortages andthewarinUkrainehas createdavolatilemarket, causing to make a substantial downgrade to 2022 outlook.Asanexampleofthe slideinforecasts,Japanese automakerToyotadropped itsU.S.lightvehiclefore-cast down from 16.5 million units to 15.5 million units or about 20% decrease for 2022. (Seeglobalautoproduction chart on page 40 for a more detailed view.)Ironically, while auto pro-ductionisdown,demandis still firm and retail auto prices at near all time highs. Average transaction prices are expected toreachaMarchrecordof $43,737,a17.4%increase from a year ago. JD Power in their March report noted, For Q1 2022, average transaction pricesareexpectedtoreach $44,129,an18.0%increase from Q1 2021.Andevenwiththehigh stickerpricestheautosare movingoffthelotsvirtu-allyatarrival.AsThomas King,presidentofthedata andanalyticsdivisionat J.D.Power,explainedinthe report,Vehiclescontinueto sell quickly, and most of those vehicles have been ordered or purchasedbybuyersbefore they arrived at the dealership. This month [March], a record 56% of vehicles will be sold within 10-days of arriving at adealership,whiletheaver-agenumberofdaysanew vehicle is in a dealers posses-sionbeforebeingsoldison pace to be 18-days down from 54-daysayearago.And inventory is down as a result. U.S.newvehicleinventory was estimated at 1.11 million units at the end of March. The tally represents about a 35 day supply, and this is down 54% compared to the same period'