b'16American Journal of Transportation ajot.comRubber band effectUS demand for auto imports snaps backThe demand for imported autosand really allvehicleshadallbutdriedupinthe middle months of 2020. But a rubber band effect was in playslowly the supply chain emptiedandthedemandincreasedanda spring back has begun with the fourth quar-ter. The question is will it last?By George Lauriat, AJOTBackinMay,PCTCsThis estimate may be further (PureCarTruckCarriers)revised downward.full of cars lay idle off WestAndtheWalleniusWil-Coast ports awaiting a chancehelmsen report ominously added, to discharge their loads to portsDeepseavolumescouldAuto Logistics 2020alreadychoc-a-blockfulloftake until 2023 to recover to autosparkedonpiers.Noth- 2019 levels.ing was moving as US demand(EFFECTcontinued on forimportedvehicleshadallpage 17)but dried up with stay at home orders and teetering paychecks. Equally, US based automakers cutproductioninresponseto theCovid-19pandemic.The unprecedented convergence of thesepandemicdrivenevents began really hitting home in the middle months of 2020 as auto sales plummeted to depths not seen in decades. But just as the pandemichashadanuneven impact on the health of nations around the world, so it has on the auto industry, complicating recovery scenarios.f IgurInga utod Emand In2020No matter how you figure it, 2020 has been a tough year for the auto industry.For example, a study pub-lished in August by global car carrier Wallenius Wilhelmsen appropriately entitled Market analysis:Howthepassen-gercarmarketisfaringin 2020andbeyond[using IHS Markit data] reported a decline in global light vehicle sales from 23.2 million units in the 4th quarter of 2019 to 17.7 million in the 1st quar-terof2020anearly22% drop.Andinanapples-to-apples comparison, when the 1st quarter of 2019 was com-pared to 1st quarter of 2020 the falloff was 22.3 million to 17.7 million respectively. Areportbyautomotive statisticsproviderGoodcar-badcar[usingUSBureau ofEconomicanalysisdata] showedthedramaticimpact ofthepandemiconautosin theUSascarsalesinFeb-ruarywere1,434,716units before dropping off a cliff to 912,800 units in March and an unbelievable 563,716 units in April. In comparison, in April of 2019, 1,355,548 cars were sold in the US. In light of these numbers,itisntsurprising thattheWalleniusWilhelm-senreportadded,Deepsea lightvehiclevolumescould declinefrom14.9millionto 11.4 million in 2020a drop of23%comparedto2019.'