b'maritime consultancy Alphaliner found thaters increase their fuel recovery ratio, or else carriers in the transpacific trades are takingthere will be serious consequences, said Si-vessels out of service for extended periodsmon Heaney, Drewrys senior manager for [image 2-1] for these retrofits. According to Alphaliner,container research. First LNG ship to bunkering operations as many as 90 containerships will be out of the water at any given time during the fourthADrewryanalysisconcurredwith quarter of this year, resulting in reduced ca- Seabury that the ability of carriers to pass on pacity and potentially inflated rates. cost increases could be make-or-break for the industry. Under a scenario that assumed It has become clear that carriers need tocarriers would manage to pass on 75% of pass along at least a significant proportionthecostdifference,Drewryscalculations of these increased costs to their customers.showed securing the higher rate would lead Fuelcostsalreadyrepresentmorethanto a profitable industry in 2020. But under 50% of total operating expenses, said Nikosanassumed50%recoveryrate,lossesto Petrakakos, vice president of Seabury Mari- carriers would result.time, an investment and advisory firm. IMO 2020 poses an increase too significant forIMO 2020An Opportunity carriers to absorb and stay operational. ADocksSeabury Maritime analysis showed that ship-ping a container from China to the UnitedAsisoftenthecase,businessproblems States East Coast will cost $600 more afteryield opportunities in some quarters. One, IMO 2020 takes effect.not surprisingly, is that gasoil exports from The analysts at Drewry believe that car- the United Arab Emirates are running at re-riers will be fairly successful in collectingcent highs. The biggest rise has been in gas-the surcharges thanks to the wider marketoil bound for Singapore, the worlds largest acceptance of burden sharing and the factbunkeringport.Gasoilexportsboundfor that carriers started discussing the issue withSoutheast Asia jumped from 10,000 barrels shippers early on. It is essential that carri- per day in September to 70,000 in October. A year ago, those levels were close to zero.32 THE UNCONTAINED www.theuncontained.com'