b'this year and 1.7% growth in 2024. Besides all that, Chinese government policy is now moving in In 2024, demand growth will be driven by regions outsidethe wrong direction. Chinese officials sanctioned more state China but faces global deceleration due to Chinas anticipated 0%control and more administrative intervention in the allocation of growth, overshadowing the improved environment, said Mximocapital, the Foreign Affairs report stated. If leaders remain fixed Vedoya, CEO of the Luxembourg-based steel manufacturer Ter- on statism, the growth rate might rise somewhat for a year or nium, and chair of the Worldsteel economics committee. Astwo, but then it will fall to potentially 2% or lower in the second Chinas population declines and moves to consumption-drivenhalf of this decade. If China re-embraces reform, growth would growth,itscontributiontoglobalsteeldemandgrowthwilldrop even lower through the medium term but could then climb lessen. back to potentially 4% as 2030 approaches.The property sector in China is a major consumer of steel, butIn either case, the report concluded, Chinas days of super-all key real estate indicators are in deeply negative territory,high growth are over.noted a recent Worldsteel report. Floor space of newly startedIf there is a silver lining for Chinas steel industry, it is that global projects and total real estate investments are showing steepsteel demand is expected to grow this year and next. Worldsteel declines, the first year-on-year decline in 25 years. The orga- expects steel demand in developed economies to increase by nization expects a slight pickup in the real estate sector this1.3% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024. Demand growth in the U.S., at year due to government support measures, with a moderate1.3% in 2023, will match global growth, but the expected growth recovery expected to continue in 2024.rate of 2.5% in 2024, will fall short. The 2021 infrastructure law, At the macroeconomic level, the Chinese economy saw 3%the Inflation Reduction Act, and expanding energy production growth in 2022, well short of the governments 5.5% goal. And,areallexpectedtocontributetodemandgrowthintheU.S., according to a report in Foreign Affairs, the real rate may haveaccording to Worldsteel.been worse, as official statistics are increasingly dubious.ChinasneighborsinAsiarepresentbetterpotentialexport markets. The Indian economy, according to Worldsteel, will see Long-Term Prospects healthy growth thanks to government infrastructure spending, stronger residential housing demand, investments in renewable Long-term prospects for economic growth under any scenario,energy, and spending on automobiles and consumer durables. according to the report, will not match Chinas growth rates sinceWorldsteel expects demand in India to grow by 7.3% in 2023 and it embraced economic reforms in the late 1970s. As a United6.2% in 2024. The ASEAN nations also represent bright spots, Nations population report noted, Chinas population is aging, andwhere steel demand is expected to increase by 6.2% in 2023 and its working-age population is shrinking.5.7% in 2024, fueled by major projects such as building Indone-In addition, a rash of business and bank defaults, fiscal short- sias new capital in East Borneo, development of long-distance falls for heavily indebted local governments, and falling returnsrailways in the Philippines, and infrastructure spending in Viet-on investment, according to the Foreign Affairs report, all pointnam.to slower growth in capital investments. Back to Contents THE UNCONTAINED 29'